构建自己的金字塔

这些本垒打猎手是不是只会进行冒险式的押注？当然不是。亚马逊会持续扩大其仓库面积，谷歌会扩大其服务器容量，苹果则会通过逐步引入新功能和服务来改进其产品。所有这些都是相对低风险的投资，也是它们在其盈利核心业务上开展的一种渐进式创新。这些投资明显不是高风险的押注。这些公司懂得如何将高风险投资与传统投资融为一体。

我们认为，企业领导者应该使其业务组合包含三种类型的项目，我们将其形象化为一个金字塔（见图3）。底部最宽部分是所有核心业务的集合。针对核心产品的渐进式创新会一直持续（比如调整产品的配色，添加可有可无的功能，或者对产品进行微调以便在一个新的国家推出），但现有产品的属性绝不会发生根本性的变化。这样的渐进式创新通常都会遵循一个明确且易于操作的流程。这些是整个业务组合的低风险部分，其成本和时间框架通常都高度可预测。

如果你把风险等级稍微提高一点，你就会遇到新的流程和服务，例如改变顾客购物方式的个性化引擎或者新的石油钻探技术等。这类项目都是以现有技术和商业模式为基础，或者是对现有产品或服务进行了一些改动。我们把金字塔的中间部分称为“毗邻创新”。谷歌的领导层把这种渐进式毗邻创新戏称为“攻顶”，以使其与具有颠覆性的“登月”相对应。

最后，位于金字塔顶端的是颠覆性创新。这些押注如果获得成功，可能会从根本上改变公司及其业务，比如亚马逊的AWS云业务、阿里巴巴的支付宝，或者网飞的流媒体服务（当年网飞的主要业务是邮寄DVD）。这类创新天生就具有风险和不确定性。它们可能会导致代价高昂的失败，也可能会颠覆整个行业，为世界带来全新的商业模式，或者为公司创造全新的用户。当位于金字塔顶端时，一定要懂得运用风投式思维。

在埃里克·施密特的领导下，谷歌甚至制定了一条经验法则：这三种类型的项目之间的比例应该是70∶20∶10，也就是至少要把10%的时间和精力用于真正的登月计划。谷歌把登月计划都放在了其秘密的创新部门谷歌X（Google X）中。谷歌X的运作类似创新工坊。毫不夸张地说，它的使命就是要创造出最终能够成为下一个谷歌的新企业。当谷歌的母公司字母表成立时，拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林甚至提醒利益相关者：“我们肯定会在一些崭新的领域进行小规模的投资，和我们的当前业务相比，这些新项目可能会看上去非常具有投机性，甚至会让你们感到吃惊。” ^[29] 谷歌X每年会对从清洁能源到人工智能的数百个创意进行评估，但只有其中的一小部分项目会获得人员和资金方面的支持。其中一些种子现在已经长成了参天大树，比如微末（Waymo）就是一家可能会颠覆现有交通运输行业的自动驾驶汽车公司。 ^[30] 从某些方面来说，谷歌X很像一只内部运作的风投基金。

当然，谷歌X也有自己的痛处。谷歌眼镜就是一个明显的例子。该产品的第一个版本遭到了铺天盖地的嘲讽，并且很快就停产了。然而，与其他公司形成鲜明对比的是，谷歌X的员工会因失败而获得奖励。 ^[31] 同样，塔塔集团的创始人拉坦·塔塔也在公司内设立了一个最佳失败创意奖。财捷公司（Intuit）不仅给员工颁发“最佳失败奖”，而且还举办“失败派对”。这些公司知道，在它们众多的小赌注中，一次巨大的成功就可能超过所有失败的总和。 ^[32]

风投式思维已经成功地应用于许多行业。好莱坞就是一个完美的例子。电影行业也是有起有落，与风险投资行业有着惊人的相似性。电影投资也有很高的失败率。 ^[33] 据信，在好莱坞顶级电影公司购买的每十个电影剧本中，只有一个能够真正获得拍摄并发行。所有上映的电影中只有一半能够收回制作成本。和风险投资一样，影视行业也是一场追逐爆款的竞赛。《权力的游戏》或《纸牌屋》等热门剧集的成功都是压倒性的，排名前20%的电影包揽了整个行业80%的收入。 ^[34] 电影的制作周期很长：《蜘蛛侠》从获得版权到成为大片，总共耗时17年。 ^[35] 这是一个超长的时间框架。无独有偶，数据分析软件公司帕兰提尔（Palantir）从创立到成为一家市值达200亿美元的上市公司，也花了整整17年的时间。 ^[36]

聪明的电影公司高管在寻找潜在大热影片时也会利用风投式思维，他们容忍失败并鼓励尝试。网飞的前首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯曾批评他的团队成功率过高：“我总是在督促内容团队，我们必须承担更大的风险，必须尝试更多疯狂的事情，因为我们总体上应该有更高的项目取消率。” ^[37] 不用说，网飞是一家由风险投资公司支持的初创公司。皮克斯前总裁埃德·卡特穆尔也赞同这种做法，指出“在制作这些电影之初，我们根本不知道它们能否成功”，但他补充道：“作为高管，我们必须抵制那种想要规避或尽量降低风险的天然倾向。” ^[38]

另一个采用风投式思维的行业是制药行业。在这个领域的成功企业会为了成为大赢家而疯狂下注。一家技术初创公司可能仅需几个月的时间就能够开始验证其想法，但一个生物技术团队却需要经过数年的时间才能知道他们的想法是对还是错——尽管这些想法实际上只是关于某种特定分子在特定健康干预中的应用。许多著名的药物，如青霉素、安定和伟哥，都是偶然发现的。由于市场进入成本高、从研发到上市的时间极长、成功的机会很低，制药公司不得不建立一种特别敢于冒险和容忍失败的文化。

你也应该试着将风投式思维应用于整个组织的三振和本垒打。如果有人问你该从哪里开始，那就从失败开始吧。

有一个很精彩的笑话，讲的是一个叫雅各布的人，他走进犹太教堂祷告说：“上帝啊，你看我是多么贫穷和不幸。拜托，让我中个彩票大奖吧。”开奖的日子到了，但雅各布未能中奖。第二周他又回到教堂：“上帝啊，求你了，我走投无路了，如果我还不能中奖，我就真完了。请让我中个彩票大奖吧。”结果他又一无所获。就这样重复过了几个星期，雅各布始终没能如愿。最终，在雅各布又做了一次祷告之后，上帝于电闪雷鸣间现出了真身，他大声说道：“雅各布啊，我真的很想帮助你，但是请你先买一张彩票吧！”许多现代企业的领导人都像雅各布一样，压根儿就没有购买创新彩票。

[1] Fab.com’s story is based on the following sources: Matthieu Guinebault, “Fab.com’s $300 Million Fundraiser,” Fashion Network , May 22, 2013; Alyson Shontell, “Fab Hits 1 Million Users 5 Months After Launch,” Business Insider , November 14, 2011; Seth Fiegerman, “Fab Passes 10 Million Members, Sells 5.4 Products Every Minute,” Mashable , December 31, 2012; Alyson Shontell, “Fab, a Design Site That Raised $156 Million to Compete with Ikea, Now Has 10 Million Members,” Business Insider , December 31, 2012; Leena Rao, “Design-Focused Flash Sales Site Fab.com Raises $40M from Andreessen Horowitz, Ashton Kutcher,” TechCrunch , December 8, 2011; Brian Laung Aoaeh, “Case Study: Fab — How Did That Happen?,” Innovation Footprints , November 27, 2017; Zachary Crockett, “Sh*t, I’m F*cked: Jason Goldberg, Founder of Fab,” The Hustle , October 17, 2017; Christina Chaey, “Fab Now Offers Made-to-Order Products, a Physical Retail Store,” Fast Company , April 30, 2013; Steven Millward, “Fab’s $150M Backers Include Tencent and Itochu, Plans to Launch in China and Maybe Japan,” Tech in Asia , June 19, 2013; Ben Rooney, “Put Emotion at the Heart of E-Commerce, Says Fab Founder,” Wall Street Journal , February 6, 2013. For “emotional commerce,” see Sarah Frier, “Chasing Growth, Fab.com Sheds Executives and Misses Targets,” Bloomberg , July 4, 2013.

[2] Michael Haley, “Jason Goldberg, Best Known for Fab, Has Raised $8 Million in Seed Funding for Virtual Fitness Startup Moxie from Resolute, Bessemer, Greycroft, Others,” Insider , April 8, 2021.

[3] Michael Salfino, “You Can’t Have Home Runs Without Strikeouts,” FiveThirtyEight , June 25, 2019.

[4] Ingrid Lunden, “Apple Closes Its $400m Shazam Acquisition and Says the Music Recognition App Will Soon Become Ad Free,” TechCrunch , September 24, 2018.

[5] Wesley Gottesman, “Thinking of Venture in Bets,” Medium , July 15, 2019.

[6] “Post-its,” Quartz , February 20, 2018; ODP Corporation, “The ODP Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results,” Business Wire, March 1, 2023.

[7] Alvin Soon, “Dr. Geoff Nicholson, the ‘Father of Post-it Notes,’ on 3M & Innovation,” Hardware Zone , March 22, 2013; Richard Sandomir, “Spencer Silver, an Inventor of Post.it Notes, Is Dead at 80,” The New York Times , May 13, 2021.

[8] 3M Company, A Century of Innovation: The 3M Story , 2002, 17.

[9] Prakash Kolli, “American Stocks Paying 100+ Years of Dividends,” Dividend Power , March 23, 2021.

[10] Brian Hindo, “At 3M, a Struggle Between Efficiency and Creativity,” Inside Innovation — in Depth , June 11, 2007.

[11] Steve Alexander, “3M, the Corporate Inventor, Surpasses 100,000 Patents Worldwide,” Minneapolis Star-Tribune , May 9, 2014.

[12] Shannon Black, “How the 15% Rule Became a Stepping Stone for 3M’s Innovation,” Market Realist , June 22, 2016; Paul D. Kretkowski, “The 15 Percent Solution,” Wired , January 23, 1998.

[13] Dale Buss, “Former GE Executives Successful as CEOs Elsewhere,” InvestmentNews , December 3, 2001.

[14] Don Peppers, “How 3M Lost (and Found) Its Innovation Mojo,” Inc ., May 9, 2016.

[15] Mary Benner and Michael L. Tushman, “Exploitation, Exploration, and Process Management: The Productivity Dilemma Revisited,” Academy of Management Review (April 2001): 28, 238–256.

[16] Hindo, “At 3M, a Struggle”; Andrew Haeg, “3M at 100—on the Right Path for Growth?,” Minnesota Public Radio , June 10, 2002.

[17] Mark J. Perry, “Only 52 US Companies Have Been on the Fortune 500 Since 1955, Thanks to the Creative Destruction That Fuels Economic Prosperity,” American Enterprise Institute, AEIdeas , May 22, 2019.

[18] Michael Sheetz, “Technology Killing Off Corporate America: Average Life Span of Companies Under 20 Years,” CNBC Markets , August 24, 2017.

[19] “Why Avoiding Risk Can Be Good for Managers but Bad for Shareholders,” Knowledge at Wharton , December 9, 2014.

[20] Benny Evangelista, “How ‘Amazon Factor’ Killed Retailers Like Borders, Circuit City,” SFGate , July 10, 2015; Valerie Peterson, “Borders Group History — the Creation of a Bookstore Chain,” Live - About , updated February 3, 2020.

[21] New York Times Open Team, “How We Rearchitected Mobile A/B Testing at the New York Times ,” Medium , March 4, 2021; Alexandria Symonds, “When a Headline Makes Headlines of Its Own,” New York Times , March 23, 2017.

[22] Daniel Thomas, “Why Did the Airbus A380 Fail?,” BBC News , February 14, 2019.

[23] “Trouble in Legoland: How Too Much Innovation Almost Destroyed the Toy Company,” Knowledge at Wharton and Time , July 12, 2013; Jonathan Ringen, “How Lego Became the Apple of Toys,” Fast Company , January 8, 2015.

[24] Mat Honan, “Remembering the Apple Newton’s Prophetic Failure and Lasting Impact,” Wired , August 5, 2013.

[25] Ryan Mac, “Live Blog: Amazon Launches First Phone in Seattle,” Forbes , June 18, 2014; Taylor Soper, “Ouch: Amazon Takes $170M Write-Down on Fire Phone,” GeekWire , October 23, 2014; Tricia Duryee, “Amazon Fire Phone Sales Estimated at 35,000—Equal to Just 25% of Employee Base,” GeekWire , August 26, 2014; Tom Warren, “Apple Sold a Record 4 Million iPhones in 24 Hours,” The Verge , September 15, 2014; Jeb Su, “4 Reasons the Amazon Fire Phone Will Fail,” Forbes , June 19, 2014.

[26] Monica Nickelsburg, “Amazon’s Jeff Bezos on the Fire Phone: ‘We’re Working on Much Bigger Failures Right Now,’ ” GeekWire , May 19, 2016.

[27] Charles Duhigg, “Is Amazon Unstoppable?,” The New Yorker , October 10, 2019.

[28] Catherine Clifford, “Jeff Bezos to Exec After Product Totally Flopped: ‘You Can’t, for One Minute, Feel Bad,’ ” CNBC , May 22, 2020.

[29] Larry Page, “G Is for Google,” Alphabet, The Keyword , August 10, 2015, blog.google/ alphabet/google-alphabet.

[30] Oliver Franklin-Wallis, “Inside X, Google’s Top-Secret Moonshot Factory,” Wired , February 17, 2020.

[31] David Grossman, “Secret Google Lab ‘Rewards Staff for Failure,’ ” BBC News , January 24, 2014.

[32] Henry Stewart, “8 Companies That Celebrate Mistakes,” Happy , June 8, 2015, happy.co.uk/blogs/8.companies-that-celebrate-mistakes.

[33] Stephen Follows, “Is the Number of Box Office Flops Increasing?,” StephenFollows.com , December 3, 2018.

[34] Arthur De Vany, Hollywood Economics : How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry (London: Routledge, 2004), 39.

[35] Matthew Jackson, “12 Amazing Facts About Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man ,” Mental Floss , May 3, 2017.

[36] Lizette Chapman, “Palantir Goes Public After 17-Year Wait,” Los Angeles Times , September 30, 2020.

[37] “A Guide to All the Netflix Shows That Have Been Canceled (and Why),” Hollywood Reporter , July 7, 2017.

[38] Karl Cohen, “Is Pixar Losing Its Mojo?,” Cine - Source , July 2, 2013; Polina Pompliano, “The Profile Dossier: Ed Catmull, Pixar’s Creative Genius,” Substack , May 5, 2021, theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-dossier-ed-catmull-pixars. 2KhwsCj9uNti//oaQqUI5v0nqHipiHIsM9myZV7dPx475Gl4j4cLFIVpTToR1dnj