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国际政治中的战略理性事关政策制定者和国家如何在一个不确定的世界中理解自身所处的形势，并决定前进的道路。我们现在的关键任务是具体说明做到这些方式中哪些是好的或者说理性的，哪些是糟糕的或者说非理性的。
[1] Herbert A. Simon,“Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought,” American Economic Review 68, no. 2 (1978): 1, 9；字体变化照录原文。
[2] Debra Satz and John Ferejohn,“Rational Choice and Social Theory,” Journal of Philosophy 91, no. 2 (1994): 73；字体变化照录原文。
[3] 关于个体对政治世界的性质和决策持有信念的说法，参见Stephen G. Walker,“Foreign Policy Analysis and Behavioral International Relations,”in Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations , ed. Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer (New York: Rout ledge, 2011), 6。
[4] 引自Stephen Kalberg,“Max Weber ’s Types of Rationality: Cornerstones for the Analysis of Rationalization Processes in History,” American Journal of Sociology 85, no. 5(1980): 1159–1160。
[5] David A. Lake and Robert Powell,“International Relations: A Strategic-Choice Approach,”in Strategic Choice and International Relations , ed. David A. Lake and Robert Powell (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), 6–7.
[6] Brian C. Rathbun, Reasoning of State: Realists, Romantics and Rationality in International Relations (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019), 18；又参见Dan Spokojny and Thomas Scherer,“Foreign Policy Should Be Evidence-Based,” War on the Rocks , 26 July 2021。
[7] Sidney Verba,“Assumptions of Rationality and Non-Rationality in Models of the International System,” World Politics 14, no. 1 (1961): 93.
[8] Norrin M. Ripsman, Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell, Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), 61–62,123–129; Alexander Wendt,“The State as Person in International Theory,” Review of International Studies 30, no. 2 (2004): 296–301.
[9] Stanley Ingber,“The Marketplace of Ideas: A Legitimizing Myth,” Duke Law Journal 1984, no. 1 (1984): 3–4.
[10] Jon Elster,“Introduction,”in Rational Choice, ed. Jon Elster (New York: New York University Press, 1986), 5; James D. Morrow, Game Theory for Political Scientists (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994), 28.
[11] Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1921),214–216, 224–225, 230；引文见第214页。
[12] Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit , 214.
[13] 参见John Maynard Keynes,“The General Theory of Employment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 51, no. 2 (1937): 213–214。关于不确定性，又参见David Dequech:“Fundamental Uncertainty and Ambiguity,” Eastern Economic Journal 26, no. 1(2000): 41–60, and“Uncertainty: A Typology and Refi nements of Existing Concepts,” Journal of Economic Issues 45, no. 3 (2011): 621–640; Friedrich A. Hayek,“The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review 35, no. 4 (1945): 519–530; John Kay and Mervyn King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision–Making beyond the Numbers (New York: W. W. Norton, 2020), 14–15; Jonathan Kirshner,“The Economic Sins of Modern IR Theory and the Classical Realist Alternative,” World Politics 67, no. 1(2015): 168–177; Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit , 198–199, 225, 231–233; Jennifer Mitzen and Randall L. Schweller,“Knowing the Unknown Unknowns: Misplaced Certainty and the Onset of War,” Security Studies 20, no. 1 (2011): 2–35; Brian C.Rathbun,“Uncertain about Uncertainty: Understanding the Multiple Meanings of a Crucial Concept in International Relations Theory,” International Studies Quarterly 51,no. 3 (2007): 533–557。
[14] 关于“小世界”和“大世界”的说法，参见Gerd Gigerenzer,“Axio-matic Rationality and Ecological Rationality,”Synthese 198 (2021): 3548–3550。
[15] Kay and King, Radical Uncertainty , 12.
[16] Carl von Clausewitz, On War , ed. and trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), 101–102.
[17] 参见（举例）Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War , 3rd ed. (New York: Free Press,1988); James D. Fearon,“Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379–414; Jack S. Levy,“Misperception and the Causes of War:Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems,” World Politics 36, no. 1 (1983): 76–99;Ernest R. May,“Capabilities and Proclivities,”in Knowing One ’ s Enemies: Intelligence Assessment before the Two World Wars , ed. Ernest R. May (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984), 504–519。
[18] Stephen M. Walt,“The Case for Finite Containment: Analyzing U.S. Grand Strategy,” International Security 14, no. 1 (1989): 6；又参见Barry R. Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014), 1;Nina Silove,“Beyond the Buzzword: The Three Meanings of ‘Grand Strategy,’” Security Studies 27, no. 1 (2018): 34–39。
[19] 荷属东印度，即今印度尼西亚，是荷兰殖民者侵占该地为殖民地时曾使用的称呼。——编者注
[20] 参见（举例）Robert Jervis,“Was the Cold War a Security Dilemma?” Journal of Cold War Studies 3, no. 1 (2001): 36–60; Marc Trachtenberg, The Craft of International History: A Guide to Method (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006), ch. 4, and“The Infl uence of Nuclear Weapons in the Cuban Missile Crisis,” International Security 10,no. 1 (1985): 137–163; John J. Mearsheimer,“The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China,and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 6 (2021): 48–58。