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As one of the important measures to ease consumer liquidity tensions, consumer credit mainly uses wealth as an intermediary to affect farmers' consumption.Traditional studies also use utility maximization axioms to discuss the impact of consumer credit on farmers' consumption decisions, while ignoring borrowers. The impact of psychological anticipation activities based on environmental changes on their consumption decisions. In fact, after obtaining credit financing support, rural household borrowers will adjust their consumption expenditures according to the expectations of various variables that affect consumption decision-making, that is to say, borrowers will have expectations of the future value of financial wealth, so as to adopt consumption that adapts to changes in wealth decision-making behavior. Although behavioral economics focuses on the impact of farmers'psychological activities on their consumption decisions, it does not pay attention to the borrowers'wealth expectations and their impact on farmers' consumption decisions. The reason for this is that the academic discussion of the farmers' consumption decision-making mechanism is mainly based on the assumption of rational people and the utility maximization axiom, while ignoring the impact of borrowers' complex psychological activities due to changes in the economic environment on their consumption decisions.
In fact, consumer credit not only generates material(currency)wealth through accounting accounts, but also generates wealth expectations through mental accounts. For farmers, they often face a complicated consumption environment such as unstable income and liquidity constraints. Therefore, in financial activities, the borrower will have future repayment ability or default(performance)risk according to changes in the economic environment. Uncertain economic consequences(Kahneman refers to such uncertain consequences as prospects)are expected. At the same time, mental accounts will be established torevaluate the value of financial wealth under different prospects(value judgment), and eventually form wealth expectations. Therefore, wealth expectation mainly meets the other needs of the financial wealth value under the psychological needs of rural household borrowers. It is the result of value judgment on consumer credit in the psychological account. We can say that wealth expectation is the expansion of wealth connotation and extension. The expected result also reflects a decision made by the decision maker on whether there is a future default risk or repayment ability. As a specific mechanism for monitoring and controlling consumer behavior, mental accounts psychologically adjust consumption according to the valuation results and set consumption targets to be achieved. Therefore, the borrower's formation of wealth expectations through mental accounts will affect the farmers' consumption decisions. Therefore, the endogenous variable of the borrower's wealth expectations should not be exogenously processed for the construction of the consumption function. Only the wealth expectations can be incorporated into the behavioral decision function make the most practical explanation for the decision-making process of farmers' behavior. But what is the wealth expectation of consumer credit? How are wealth expectations generated and quantified? What is the mechanism by which wealth expectations affect farmers' consumption? Does consumer credit have a wealth expectation effect on rural household consumption? Existing research does not give clear answers to these questions, and the answers to these questions help to better release the effect of consumer finance on consumption.
Based on this, the paper clearly defines the connotation and extension of consumer credit wealth expectation and constructs the mechanism and quantification of wealth expectationin order to deeply analyze the process of wealth expectation of consumer credit and its impact on farmers'consumption decisions during financial activities. The method clarifies the logical chain in which wealth expectations affect farmers'consumption decisions. Accordingly, the thesis uses Probit and other quantitative analysis tools to explore the overall effect of consumer credit wealth expectations on farmers'consumption, and examines the consumer credit wealth expectations from the static and dynamic time dimensions, the survival dimension and the structural dimension of improved spending. Impact on farmers' consumption. At the same time, considering the regional and rural internal differences in our country, the paper further explores the heterogeneity of the effect of consumer credit wealth expectations on farmers'consumption, and analyzes consumer credit wealth expectations for farmers'consumption from different regions in east, middle, and west, and high, middle, and low income groups.Impact. In short, based on the theoretical analysis framework, the research hypothesis is proposed, and the CFPS data is used as the basis for statistical analysis. The main conclusions and innovations of the final paper are as follows:
The main conclusion of the study:
First, it puts forward the realistic background of wealth expectations. After obtaining financial support, farmers borrowers will worry about the uncertain consequences(prospects)of default in the future, and thus establish mental accounts to revalue the value of financial wealth under different prospects, ultimately forming wealth expectations. In short, borrowers will evaluate financial wealth based on changes in the economic environment to generate wealth expectations.
Second, it clarifies the connotation and quantitative methods of wealth expectations. Wealth expectation is the result of valuing consumer credit in mental accounts, which mainly meets the psychological needs of decision makers and is an extension of wealth connotation and extension. From the perspective of the process of creating wealth expectations, the size of wealth expectations is mainly related to the selection of reference points and the size of sunk costs.
Third, the logical framework of the expected effect of wealth is constructed.Wealth expectation mainly affects consumption scale through reference point effect and sunk cost effect, and influences consumption content choice through cognitive attributes and emotional response to wealth expectation. When wealth perception or optimism, farmers tend to improve consumption, while when debt awareness or pessimism, they tend to survive expenditure.
Fourth, it examines the overall effect of wealth expectations on farmers' consumption. The wealth expectation of consumer credit has a positive impact on farmers' consumption decisions. From the perspective of static and dynamic and scale, wealth expectations and farmers' consumption change in the same direction. From a structural perspective, the impact of wealth expectations on subsistence expenditure must be higher than improvement expenditure.
Fifth, he discovered the heterogeneity of the expected effect of wealth. The effect of wealth expectations on the consumption of rural households is heterogeneous in different regions and in different subjects: the effect of wealth expectations on the eastern region is higher than that of the central and western regions; the effect of wealth expectations on the high-income groups is higher than Low-and middle-income groups.
Research major innovations:
(1) Exploring consumer credit wealth expectations from the perspective of behavioral economics, enriching the connotation and extension of wealth. Starting frombehavioral economics, the paper finds that the borrower has obvious expectations of the future uncertainty of financial activities, and then re-judges the value of financial wealth under different prospects by establishing a psychological account, and finally forms wealth expectations. It can be said that the research on the wealth expectation generated by consumer credit has enriched the connotation and extension of wealth and made up for the deficiencies of traditional consumer credit wealth research.
(2) Constructed a theoretical framework of wealth expectations affecting consumptiondecisions, and laid a micro foundation for the effect of wealth expectations. The paper captures the borrower's expectations of the future uncertainty consequences(prospects), and proposes a quantitative method for calculating the final value of financial wealth and the aggregate wealth expectation under different prospects. It clarifies the logical chain of wealth expectations affecting farmers'consumption decisions. Concept definition-production process-quantification method-function path establishes a complete analysis framework for the analysis of wealth expectation effect, thereby laying a micro foundation for relevant empirical evidence.
(3) The existence of the expected effect of consumer credit on the consumption wealth of rural households is verified, thereby making up for the lack of research on the wealth effect of traditional consumer credit. The paper incorporates the borrower's psychological activity outcomes of consumer credit and wealth expectations as endogenous variables into the farmers' consumption decision function. From the overall effect and heterogeneity to verify the existence of consumer credit's wealth expectations on the impact of farmers' consumption, we get astable and reliable conclusions, thus making up for the shortcomings of traditional consumer credit wealth effect research.