下载掌阅APP，畅读海量书库
立即打开
In theory, statistics should help settle arguments. They ought to provide stable reference points that everyone—no matter what their politics—can agree on. Yet in recent years, different levels of trust in statistics has become one of the key discrepancies that have opened up in western liberal democracies. In the UK, a research project by Cambridge University and YouGov looking at conspiracy theories discovered that 55% of the population believes that the government “is hiding the truth about the number of immigrants living here”.
Rather than weakening controversy and polarisation, it seems as if statistics are actually making them strong. Dislike of statistics has become one of the features of the populist right, with statisticians and economists chief among the various “experts” that were apparently rejected by voters in 2016. Not only are statistics viewed by many as untrustworthy, there appears to be something almost insulting or arrogant about them. Reducing social and economic issues to numerical aggregates and averages seems to violate some people's sense of political decency.
Nowhere is this more vividly manifest than with immigration. The think tank British Future has studied how best to win arguments in favour of immigration and multiculturalism. One of its main findings is that people often respond warmly to qualitative evidence, such as the stories of individual migrants and photographs of diverse communities. But statistics—especially regarding alleged benefits of migration to Britain's economy—elicit quite the opposite reaction. People assume that the numbers are manipulated and dislike the elitism of resorting to quantitative evidence. Presented with official estimates of how many immigrants are in the country illegally, a common response is to scoff. Far from increasing support for immigration, British Future found, pointing to its positive effect on GDP can actually make people more hostile to it.
All of this presents a serious challenge for liberal democracy. Put bluntly, the British government—its officials, experts, advisers and many of its politicians—does believe that immigration is on balance good for the economy. The British government did believe that Brexit was the wrong choice. The problem is that the government is now engaged in self-censorship, for fear of provoking people further.
Either the state continues to make claims that it believes to be valid and is accused by sceptics of propaganda, or else, politicians and officials are confined to saying what feels plausible and intuitively true, but may ultimately be inaccurate. Either way, politics becomes mired in accusations of lies and cover-ups.
6. What can be learned about statistics in western liberal democracies from Paragraph 1?
[A] They can truly solve arguments.
[B] They have lost their influence.
[C] They have people's total trust.
[D] They hide the truth about immigration.
7. Who are most likely to be adversely affected by dislike of statistics?
[A] Populists.
[B] Economists.
[C] Experts.
[D] Voters.
8. According to British Future's findings, people are disgusted by ________.
[A] immigration and multiculturalism
[B] qualitative evidence
[C] official estimates of GDP
[D] quantitative evidence
9. Which of the following is true of British government, according to the last paragraph?
[A] It has been involved in a disinformation campaign.
[B] It is saying figures that are greatly exaggerated.
[C] It is facing an awkward dilemma at present.
[D] It is misleading people with lies and cover-ups.
10. Which of the following would be the best title of the text?
[A] The Liberal Democracies in Grave Danger
[B] The Declining Authority of Statistics
[C] The Controversy Surrounding Immigration
[D] The Government Mired in Lies and Cover-ups