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Scientists believed that one of the most pressing issues at that moment was to figure out how the virus spreads.As for the answer, as I mentioned earlier, according to Chinese official confirmation,this virus can spread from person to person.
Starting from this answer, we are faced with a new problem related to this, that is, the number of people who may eventually be infected.According to the analysis of the article in the journal Nature , “If the infection reproduction number, that is, the average number of people who can infect a person exceeds 1, it means that measures such as isolation must be taken to curb the spread of the virus.” This conclusion confirms the correctness of the closure of Wuhan City.The infection coefficient of new coronary pneumonia is between 1.5 and 2.5, which is higher than 1.
We can compare the current situation with the previous infectious diseases.For example, the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States in 2009 had an infection reproduction rate close to that of new coronavirus, but no cities in the United States had adopted any restrictions.The medical profession believes that this is the main reason for the widespread of influenza A (H1N1), which eventually caused about 1 billion people in the world to be infected.Although influenza A H1N1 is not a deadly virus, its mortality rate (0.02%) is lower than that of the new coronavirus (3.4%), but if isolation measures are taken when it begins to spread, infection can be effectively reduced, curbing the spread of the virus.According to estimates by the U.S.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in the first year of the spread of H1N1 influenza, 152 to 575,000 people died worldwide, and 80% of the dead were under 65 years old.
Other important questions raised by the article in the journal Nature included: can people who are infected with the virus but have no symptoms spread the virus to others, and how widespread is this type of transmission?
Although China and other countries have conducted extensive research on this, as of the date of publication, there was no definite answer.According to another report in the Nature , in only January 2020,important scientific journals such as Nature and The Lancet published at least 54 relevant English research papers, and Chinese scientific journals also published 23 related research papers.This is a very large number,indicating that the scientific community is learning about the spread and control methods of the virus in an efficient and rapid way.
Back to the problem, a report published by The Lancet on January 24,2020 pointed out that after a study of six infected people in a family in a Chinese city, it was found that one child was infected with the new coronavirus.whithout any symptoms.
At that time, many people were very concerned about whether infection with the new coronavirus would lead to death quickly.In other words, how deadly is this virus? The Lancet ’s research answered this question.Based on data provided by China, scientists concluded that the death rate of new coronavirus is lower than that of SARS, which the death rate of SARS is 10%.However, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at the Royal College of London, found through mathematical models that it is “premature to remain optimistic about the severity of the virus”.The importance of this research is that these questions must be asked as early as possible, and answers should be given.Even preliminary answers can help China and other countries in the world deal with this virus.
Where did the virus come from? On this issue, there were huge differences between different parties, especially after the process known as “virus politicization”.In early January, scientists asked this question for purely scientific purposes.Researchers believe that determining the source of the virus will help control the current outbreak, determine the size of the risk, and may also predict future epidemic trends.
If you don’t know the genetic sequence of the new coronavirus, it is impossible to get an accurate answer to this question.This is what China announced on January 12．As Zhong Nanshan said, “Beijing has not concealed any information.” Therefore, the person in China who announces the genetic sequence of the virus seems to be revealing all the information they have.The information provided by China can be used to study almost all issues, including when the virus appeared and where the virus came from.After the genetic sequence was published,could China still hide information or mislead the world? According to Chinese scientists, the answer is no.Because after the genetic sequence was published, all the information needed by the scientists was made public,China could not hide anything, unless someone deliberately misled.
Through this genetic sequence, scientists determined that the virus belongs to the coronavirus family that spreads in bats, including SARS virus and those similar.However, other mammals may also transmit these viruses.
To emphasize the importance of extended genome sequencing, the article raised another question, how can we benefit from the genetic sequence of the virus? Trevor Bay, an evolutionary geneticist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington, USA, said, “It provides some clues to the origin and spread of the virus, which is good.”
According to a report in Nature , Deford and other geneticists are using these data to infer the earliest date of the virus’s appearance, and the results indicate that the virus may have first appeared in November 2019．This allowed for the first time anyone in the world to compare this date with the date when the virus was first reported in Wuhan.China reported its first case of new coronary pneumonia on December 27, 2019, that is,on the 19th day after the first case of pneumonia of unknown cause was discovered (i.e., December 8), less than a month from the earliest date estimated by scientists.Based on this data, it can be concluded that China has not concealed the report, because it is natural to take 20 days from the first infection to the first report, and any country needs time to determine whether these cases originated from a new kind of disease.Therefore,China didn’t hide information about the emergence of the virus.