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Abstract

Abstract: In 2020,the pandemic has harmed global trade seriously.The growth rate of global trade dropped to-5.1%,which became another negative growth after the 2008 international financial crisis. COVID-19 strarted to hit the world since Februray and China also experienced the slowdown in international trade since then. Luckily,due to the strong ability to reopen its domestic supply chains ahead of other countries,the recovery of China's foreign trade was especially strong since June 2020. The fall in China's foreign trade was much smaller than in other regions. In 2020,China's forreign trade was much better than expected,with exports increasing by 3.6%,imports decreasing by 1.1%,and the export growth rate in the fourth quarter even exceeded 10%.This report deeply analyzes the impetus and features of China's trade growth from the perspectives of merchandise structure,country structure and area structure,types of merchandise trade and service trade. The report also forcast the development of China's trade in 2022. It could be cautiously optimistic under the good scenario of global epidemic and stable economy recovery,China's export is expected to reach 3% growth rate. From the perspective of commodity structure,“epidemic economy”and “housing economy”are still China's trade dividends.Exports of textile,medical,electromechanical and other products are expected to have further growth. From the perspective of country structure,with RCEP entrying into force,trade with ASEAN countries such as Vietnam,Singapore,Malaysia and Thailand,as well as with Japan and South Korea will grow rapidly. From the perspective of types of merchandise trade,the decline of external demand,logistics interruption and personnel shortage during the epidemic period lead to the decline of the proportion of China's processing trade. In the future,based on the consideration of supply chain security,the epidemic will reshape the division of labor in the industrial chain,and China's processing trade may be further transferred abroad. From the perspective of service trade,the growth of China's service trade in 2021 will slightly rebound.The trade volume of service industries and knowledge and technology intensive service industries will further increase. Driven by the rapid development of digital industry,digital trade especially digital service export,is expected to become a new bright spot.

Key Words: Internationality Trade,Commodity Structure,Country Structure,Trade Mode,Trade in Services PXQ2uVHnG21mi15IFloqpuPAMrUZMuc/euKUScZ4y0A8+mqS8Ag9dND8YfNVaJxw

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