摘要

摘要：中国劳动力市场发展见证了中国经济奇迹。短短几十年时间，中国城镇劳动力市场完成了从无到有、从自发探索到体系有序的过程，经历了国企改制、加入世界贸易组织（WTO）、国际金融危机，以及人口与经济结构转变等一系列冲击与考验。劳动力市场与宏观经济密切关联，与个体和家庭戚戚相关。本研究立足微观视角，利用2001年以来四轮中国城市劳动力调查（China Urban Labor Survey,CULS）数据，全面地观察21世纪以来中国城镇劳动力市场变迁，把握中国劳动力市场发展的典型特征，理解中国经济转型与全球融入过程。

中国劳动力市场大体经历了从2000年前后的“固态僵化”、2005年前后的“冲击无序”，到2010年前后的“建立重整”，再到2015年以来的“逐渐完善”的变迁历程。经济运行的活力与劳动力市场表现密切相关，劳动力市场总体上达到了较为充分的就业，家庭和个体层面的劳动参与率较高，但同时也表现出一些挑战，青年失业率高、女性劳动参与率下降、群体与区域分化等现象成为劳动力市场面临的主要问题。

中国改革是渐进式的，劳动力市场转型不是一蹴而就的。2001—2005年，国企改制进入攻坚阶段，城镇劳动力从国有企业快速转入市场化部门；2005—2010年，体制转轨基本完成，从国有部门（公共部门和国有企业）向市场化部门就业转移的步伐明显放缓，股份制方式的国有经济与民营经济合作成为就业创造的新形式；2010—2016年，市场经济体制改革深入推进，市场化部门创造更多就业岗位，城镇劳动力迎来了从国有（准国有）部门向市场部门转移的“第二波浪潮”。尽管市场化进程不断推进，但国有部门（经济）在城镇经济和劳动力市场中仍然扮演重要角色，市场化改革道路并未完成。

就业正规化程度是劳动力市场发展的重要反映，而非正规就业大多表现为较低的劳动收入、较差的劳动权益保障和较低的社会保障覆盖。21世纪以来的20年，中国城市劳动力市场经历了从非正规就业向正规就业转变的过程，劳动力市场体系逐渐完善，劳动合同和社会保险制度等覆盖面快速提高。城市正规就业比重呈现逐年上升的趋势，相应地非正规就业比重逐渐下降，就业质量逐渐提高，劳动力市场监管更加规范。男性比女性更容易获得正规就业机会，但性别差距趋于收敛，本地城市户口在正规就业选择上存在明显的优势，人力资本水平是获得正规就业机会、进入正规就业部门的重要影响因素。

劳动力从农业农村部门转移到城镇非农部门是中国劳动力市场发展的重要特征，从城乡二元结构走向城乡一体化也是劳动力市场成熟的重要标志。城市本地户口劳动者、城城流动劳动力与农民工群体之间的相对关系变化见证了劳动力市场的快速转变。城市本地户口劳动力与农民工的工资差距呈现出先扩大再缩小、之后再次扩大的变化趋势，城市本地户口劳动力与农民工的工资差距从2001年的1.30扩大到2005年的1.72，之后下降到2010年的1.19，但到2016年这一差距再次扩大到1.44。劳动力市场供求关系与技能需求结构都出现了快速变化，工资差距变化正是这一结构性转变的直观反映。2010年前后农民工与城镇本地劳动者工资收敛的主要驱动力来自“供给侧”,2016年两者收入差距再次扩大的主要驱动力来自“需求侧”。

2008年国际金融危机考验了中国城市劳动力市场抵御系统性外部风险的能力。国际金融危机对沿海地区出口导向型部门尤其是制造业影响较大，这些部门大多是市场化部门，集中了大量民营企业和流动就业人员。流动人口首当其冲地遭受系统性外部风险冲击，农民工面对外部不确定性风险时更倾向于选择返乡，本质上可以理解为短期失业，农业农村发挥了“就业蓄水池”功能，而城市本地劳动者在面临外部风险冲击时得到了较好的就业保护。不同群体遭受冲击的程度及其应对方式存在差异，背后反映了劳动力市场灵活性与安全性之间的协调性矛盾。

教育回报率反映了劳动力市场对不同教育水平劳动力的相对需求。教育回报率在2001—2010年趋于上升，2016年略有下降。研究估算表明，每接受一年教育的回报在2001年为7.75%,2010年上升到9.78%，到2016年下降到9.39%。教育回报率的提高表明劳动力市场中对技能的相对需求在提高，即使经历了教育扩招的供给冲击，但由于对技能的相对需求增长更快，接受更多教育在劳动力市场中的回报仍然是十分可观的。2016年之后的下降可能与经济增长相对乏力、经济结构转型调整以及技能需求结构变化有关。城市本地户口劳动力的受教育年限回报最高，且呈现稳定提高态势，而外地城市户口和农村户口的劳动力教育回报率明显偏低，这反映出城市劳动力市场中仍然存在一些制度性障碍。职业教育正在面临劳动力市场筛选的重大挑战，相对于高中教育，中职教育回报率下降幅度较大，到2016年已经趋近，中等职业教育相对于普通高中通识教育的优势几乎丧失，不同代际之间的中职教育以及中职学生生源的相对质量发生根本性变化，这也是当前“普职分流”矛盾日趋尖锐的根源。

工作转换是实现个人职业升级和劳动力市场效率提升的重要途径。理论上并不存在一个统一标准的合意“工作转换”程度，一个运行良好的劳动力市场会存在一定程度的工作转换，并且这样的工作转换可以带来劳动力和工作岗位的更好匹配。工作转换周期总体上趋于拉长，主要原因可能不在于工作机会更少，而取决于劳动者更多样化的就业需求。平均工作转换周期从2001年的0.6年延长到2016年的1.7年，一方面工作转换发生频次下降，另一方面工作转换的周期变长，反映出工作转换的决策更为谨慎，体现了劳动者对高质量就业的更高追求，即从“有工作”升级至“有好工作”，相应的匹配需求难度加大，转换周期更长。

中国劳动力市场发展具有市场经济国家的一般规律与特征，同时也表现出独特性。尽管劳动力市场逐步完善，但改革尚未彻底完成，劳动力市场中依然遗留了一些尚待解决的转轨痕迹。中国经济已经进入新发展阶段，高质量发展成为时代主线，劳动力市场发展也将定位于更加充分、更高质量就业目标。面对人口负增长阶段的劳动力供给形势，新技术变革驱动下的经济结构快速转变，以及更加复杂多变的国内外环境，风险与挑战更大，可资借鉴的经验更少，劳动力市场改革与发展任重道远。

关键词：劳动力市场；就业；人力资本；技能；转型

Abstract: The development of Chinese labor market has witnessed Chinese economic miracle.In just a few decades,the urban labor market in China has been established from scratch,and developed into an orderly and organized market system after the spontaneous exploration in early stage.It has experienced the challenges and shocks from the reform of state-owned enterprises（SOEs）,the accession to WTO,the global financial crisis,and the demographic transition and economic structural change.The labor market is closely linked to the macroeconomy and to the individuals and households.Based on a microscopic perspective,by using data of four rounds of China Urban Labor Survey（CULS）since 2001,this book comprehensively explores the changes of Chinese urban labor market in the 21 ^st century,highlights the typical characteristics of the development of Chinese labor market,and helps to understand Chinese economic transformation and the process of its integration into global economy.

Chinese labor market has experienced the following stages: the rigidity state around 2000,the disorder state around 2005,the restructuring around 2010,and the gradual improvement around 2015.The economic vitality is closely related to the performance of the labor market.Over all,the labor market in China has achieved relatively full employment,relatively high labor force participation rate at the individual and household level,but there are also challenges,such as high unemployment rate of the youth,declining labor force participation rate for females,and the divergence trend for different regions and groups.

The reform in China is gradual,and the labor market transformation cannot be accomplished overnight.Between 2001 and 2005,the reform of SOEs went into a crucial stage and the urban labors were rapidly shifted from state owned sector to market-oriented sectors; between 2005 and 2010,as the institutional reform being basically accomplished,the above shift slowed down significantly,and the joint-stock cooperation between SOEs and private sectors became a new form of job creation; between 2010 and 2016,because the reform of the market economy system had been further advanced,and the market-oriented sectors created more jobs,the urban labors experienced the second wave of transferring from state（quasi-state）owned sector to market-oriented sectors.Despite the continuous advancement of the marketization process,the state-owned sector（economy）still plays an important role in the urban economy and labor market,and the marketization reform has not been finished.

The degree of formalization of employment is an important reflection of the development of the labor market.Informal employment is always related to lower income,poorer protection of labor rights,and lower social security coverage.During the past 20 years in the 21 ^st century,Chinese urban labor market has experienced a process of transition from informal employment to formal employment,with the labor market system gradually improving,and the coverage of labor contracts and social insurance systems rapidly increasing.The proportion of urban formal employment shows an upward trend,while the proportion of informal employment gradually declines.Meanwhile,the quality of employment has gradually improved,and the labor market supervision has become more standardized.Males are more likely to obtain formal employment opportunities than females,but the gender gap tends to narrow.People with local urban hukou has obvious advantages in obtaining formal employment,and human capital is also an important factor for obtaining formal employment opportunities and entering the formal sector.

The migration of labor from agricultural and rural sectors to urban and non-agricultural sectors is an important feature of Chinese labor market development,and the transition from urban-rural dual structure to urban-rural integration is also an important sign of labor market maturity.The difference among workers with local urban hukou,inter-urban migrants and rural to urban migrants have witnessed the rapid changes in the labor market.The wage gap between local urban workers and rural-urban migrants shows a trend of first widening,then narrowing,and then widening again.The wage gap between local urban workers and rural-urban migrants widened from 1.30 in 2001 to 1.72 in 2005,and then decreased to 1.19 in 2010,but widened again to 1.44 by 2016.The supply and demand in the labor market and skill demand structure have undergone rapid changes,and the change in wage gap is an intuitive reflection of this structural change.Around 2010,The main driving force for wage convergence between rural-urban migrants and local urban workers came from the“supply side”,however,the main driving force for the divergence in 2016 came from the“demand side”.

The global financial crisis tested the ability to resist external systemic risks of Chinese urban labor market.The financial crisis in 2008 had a greater impact on the exportoriented sectors in coastal areas,especially the manufactur ing sector,which were mostly market-oriented sectors,with a large proportion of private enterprises and migrant workers.The migrant workers bear the brunt of systemic external shocks,and rural-urban migrants were more inclined to return to their hometowns in the face of external uncertain risks.In essence,this can be understood as short-term unemployment.Agriculture and rural areas played the role of“employment reservoirs”.In contrast,the local urban workers were better protected in the face of external risks and shocks.The difference in the vulnerability and response between different groups reflected the coordination contradiction between the flexibility and security of the labor market.

The rate of return to education reflects the relative demand for labors with different levels of education.Returns to education tended to rise between 2001 and 2010 and declined slightly in 2016.The estimate results show that the return to years of schooling was 7.75 % in 2001,then rose to 9.78 % in 2010,and fell to 9.39 % in 2016.Increasing return to education indicated an increase in the relative demand for skills in the labor market.Even after the supply shock caused by college expansion,the return to education is still substantial because the relative demand for skills grew faster.The decline in education return in 2016 may be related to the slowdown of economic growth,the structural transformation in the economy,and change in skill demand.The education return for the local urban labor is the highest and shows a steady increase,while the education return for the migrants is obviously lower,which reflects that there are still some institutional obstacles in the urban labor market.Vocational education is facing great challenge from market competition.The return to secondary vocational education has declined significantly and has been approached close to the return of general high school education by 2016.The advantages of secondary vocational education compared to general high school education almost disappear due to the fundamental changes in the quality of secondary vocational education and the quality of different student cohorts.These are also the source of the increasingly acute contradiction between the current“division of students into general high schools and secondary vocational schools”policy and the public.

Job turnover is an important way to achieve personal career promotion and improve labor market efficiency.There is no common standard for the desired degree of“job turnover”.There will be a certain degree of job change in a well-functioning labor market,which will bring better matching between workers and jobs.The job search duration has generally tended to be longer,and this may not be due to fewer job opportunities,but more diverse job needs of workers.The average years of job search duration has been extended from 0.6 years in 2001 to 1.7 years in 2016.On the one hand,the frequency of job switching has decreased,on the other hand,the job search duration has become longer,which reflects that the decision-making of job switching has been more cautious and reflects people's pursuit of higher quality employment,that is,upgrading from“having a job”to“having a good job”lead to increasing difficulty of matching and longer job search duration.

The development of Chinese labor market follows the general rules and characteristics of those market economy countries,but also shows its uniqueness.Although the labor market has gradually improved,the reform has not been fully accomplished,and there are still some problems left over by the transition,which remain to be resolved.Chinese economy has moved into a new stage of development.In this new stage,high-quality development has become the main objective,while in the labor market,full and higher-quality employment will be the main goal.Faced with the labor supply shortage and negative population growth in the new stage,the rapid economic transformation driven by technological changes,and the more complex and volatile domestic and international situation,China is confronted with greater risks and challenges,and there are fewer lessons to be learned from.As a whole,there is still a long way to go for the further reform and development of the labor market.

Key words: Labor Market; Employment; Human Capital; Skill; Transform