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第六节
结语

美国的国际秩序观是一个演进变化的过程。从二战到冷战之后,美国国际秩序观在若干维度上都发生了变化。从整体上来看,“冷战”之后的美国国际秩序观既是以接触与扩大为主线的所谓“自由国际秩序”,更是一种既承担国际责任也诉诸霸权举动的所谓“仁慈霸权”。伴随2000年后美国的国际位势出现相对下滑、中国与俄罗斯等大国崛起、核问题与恐怖主义威胁加重,加之其国内政治生态的嬗变,美国也逐渐改变着其在地区和全球层面的国际秩序认知和观念,并调整着其在霸权护持和国际互动中的相关政策。

特别是,以特朗普政府上台为标志,美国的国际秩序观重新拥抱冷战时期的对抗与遏制思维,特朗普政府也展现出与之前相比更为激烈、更为全面、配置也更为极端的美国霸权护持观,也就是“特朗普式”国际秩序观。实际上,美国国际秩序观的转变是国际结构、国家间关系与美国国内政治经济社会变化以及执政团队独特逻辑的共同结果,既展现出时代发展与权力转移的必然性,也呈现了国内风潮与个人特征的偶然性;当然,这种偶然性与转变性也需要从必然性与持续性逻辑中寻找根源。

综上所述,“特朗普式”国际秩序观所展现的七个维度处于相互联系之中,影响着美国对国际秩序建构的三大要素即实力地位、国际制度和合法性规范等的评估,也界定着美国对国际格局、未来愿景、本国角色、对手辨识、利益界定、组织原则、制度功能和秩序维持路径的基本观点,从而呈现出美国政府国际秩序观演变中的对抗逻辑回归现象。这些特征彰显出美国国际秩序观的复杂性,其中包含着如此多元的维度、要素和张力,这也印证了基辛格关于美国“参与世界秩序的态度令人如此难以参透”的基本判断。

但是,万变不离其宗。美国国际秩序观演变和对外政策调整的基调依然是美国主导之霸权秩序的护持与操纵。二战之后,美国与世界的关系可以看作是一个以霸权为中心的演变历程。可以说在七十多年的时间里,霸权已经成为美国国际秩序观中最为重要的一环,可以说,美国是因霸权地位立于世界舞台,依霸权逻辑管治国际事务,也聚焦于霸权护持而设置了若干国内外制度并实施相关政策。

美国国际秩序观中的“特朗普冲动”也正在深刻影响国际互动。时至今日,“新冷战”似乎已经成为现实。新冠疫情危机以突发之势冲击着当前的国际秩序,加快着国际秩序各行为主体的互动速度,改变着行为体间相处的制度和规则,塑造着“后疫情”时代中国家间行为互动的新模式,更推动着不同国家在国际秩序方面的主观观念改变。与“加速器”一样,新冠疫情的爆发与全球蔓延在美国四年一度的选举周期中强化了特朗普本人及其执政团队在国际秩序观念方面的对抗思维、敌对态度、偏执倾向和卸责姿态。观念的影响具有一定的稳定性,特朗普政府塑造的美国国际秩序观肯定将超出特朗普的任期,中美之间的互动也必然面临着显著的变化。可以预期,这种以激进手段、强硬路径和对抗逻辑护持美国霸权和特定执政集团利益的“特朗普式”国际秩序观必然会激化美国与其他竞争大国之间的全面性冲突和系统性摩擦,缩小大国之间和平相处、协商共事的制度空间,并最终降低当前国际秩序和平变迁的可能性。


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[68] Shawn Donnan and Demetri Sevastopulo,“US and EU Declare Ceasefire to Trade War,” Financial Times ,July 26,2018,https://www.ft.com/content/b97410a6-9055-11e8-b639-7680cedcc421.

[69] Bryce Baschuk,“Europe,US Escalate Trade War with New Disputes at the WTO,” Industry Week ,October 19,2018,https://www.industryweek.com/economy/europe-us-escalate-trade-war-new-disputes-wto.

[70] Gregory B.Poling,“Congress Fires a Warning Shot to China with Defense Budget,” The Hill ,August 06,2018,https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/400527-congress-fires-a-warning-shot-to-china-with-defense-budget.

[71] 祁玲玲:《选举政治的逻辑——美国反政治正确的归因分析》,载《世界经济与政治》2017年第10期,第67-89页;Marc Hooghe and Ruth Dassonneville,“Explaining the Trump Vote:The Effect of Racist Resentment and Anti-Immigrant Sentiments,” PS:Political Science & Politics ,Vol.51,No.3,2018,pp.528-534;Sanford F.Schram,“Introduction Symposium:Race,Rage and Resentment:Researching the Trump Coalition,” New Political Science ,Vol.39,No.4,2017,pp.627-630;Alan Abramowitz and Jennifer McCoy,“United States:Racial Resentment,Negative Partisanship,and Polarization in Trump's America,” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science ,Vol.681,No.1,2019,pp.137-156;Lawrence J.Lau,“Behind the US-China Trade War Lies a Competition for Dominance and a Rising Tide of Protectionism,” South China Morning Post ,August 17,2018,https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2160041/behind-us-china-trade-war-lies-competition.

[72] C.H.Tung,“America and China Need Each Other,” The Diplomat ,February 08,2018,https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/america-and-china-need-each-other/.

[73] Walter Russell Mead,“Left and Right Agree:Get Tough on China,” The Wall Street Journal ,January 8,2018,https://www.wsj.com/articles/left-and-right-agree-get-tough-on-china-1515458432;Lee Drutman,“American Politics Has Reached Peak Polarization,”Vox,March 24,2016,https://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2016/3/24/11298808/american-politics-peak-polarization.

[74] Timothy Heath,“Partisan Rancor Undermines Our Ability to Act on China,” The Hill ,November 8,2018,https://thehill.com/opinion/international/415698-partisan-rancor-undermines-our-ability-to-act-on-china.

[75] Kenneth A.Schultz,“Perils of Polarization for U.S.Foreign Policy,” The Washington Quarterly ,Vol.40,No.4,2018,pp.7-28;“Political Polarization in the American Public,”Pew Research Center,June 12,2014,http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/.

[76] Mohamed El-Erian,“Could Trump's Tariff Race Shift the Global Economic Balance?” The Guardian ,July 9,2018,https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/09/trumps-tariff-race-global-economic-balance-us-china.

[77] Eliot A.Cohen,“America's Long Goodbye:The Real Crisis of the Trump Era,” Foreign Affairs ,Vol.98,No.1,2019,pp.138-146.

[78] Kori Schake,“The Trump Doctrine Is Winning and the World Is Losing,” The New York Times ,June 15,2018,https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/opinion/sunday/trump-china-america-first.html.

[79] Gideon Rose,“Letting Go:What's Inside,” Foreign Affairs ,February 13,2018.

[80] Jake Sullivan,“The World after Trump:How the System Can Endure,” Foreign Affairs ,March 5,2018,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-03-05/world-after-trump;James Kirchick,“Trump Wants to Destroy the World Order.So What?” Foreign Policy ,July 26,2018,https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/26/trump-wants-to-destroy-the-world-order-so-what/;Adam Entous,“Donald Trump's New World Order:How the President,Israel,and the Gulf States Plan to Fight Iran—and Leave the Palestinians and the Obama Years Behind,” The New Yorker ,June 18,2018,https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/06/18/donald-trumps-new-world-order.

[81] Annie Lowery,“The ‘Madman’ Behind Trump's Trade Theory,” The Atlantic ,December 2018,https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/12/peter-navarro-trump-trade/573913/;Peter Navarro,“Why Economic Security Is National Security?”RealClearPolitics,December 9,2018,https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/12/09/why_economic_security_is_national_security_138875.html.

[82] 115th Congress(2017-2018),H.R.5515-John S.McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019,August 13,2018,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text;Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration's Policy Toward China,White House,October 4,2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-administrations-policy-toward-china/;Carlo Muñoz,“U.S.Lacks ‘All-of-Nation’ Strategy to Curb China,Says Top House Lawmaker,” The Washington Times ,February 15,2018,https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/15/thornberry-us-lacks-all-nation-strategy-curb-china/;Shannon Tiezzi,“Trump's No-Lose Trade War Fantasy,” The Diplomat ,November 29,2018,https://thediplomat.com/tag/trump-china-policy/.

[83] Bhavan Jaipragas,“America's Message:Time to Pick Sides in the South China Sea,” South China Morning Post ,October 6,2018,https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2167247/americas-message-time-pick-sides-south-china-sea.

[84] Lara Seligman,“U.S.Puts Money Where Its Mouth Is on China,” Foreign Policy ,October 8,2018,https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/08/u-s-puts-money-where-its-mouth-is-on-china/.

[85] Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian,“Trump Comes Through for Taiwan with $1.3 Billion Arms Sale,” Foreign Policy ,June 29,2017,https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/29/trump-comes-through-for-taiwan-with-1-3-billion-arms-sale/;Edward White and Kathrin Hille,“US Agrees $330m Arms Sale to Bolster Taiwan Defences,” Financial Times ,September 25,2018,https://www.ft.com/content/43a80396-c05c-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a.

[86] The Associated Press,“Navy Research Vessel Docks in Taiwan amid Tensions with China,” Navy Times ,October 17,2018,https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2018/10/17/us-navy-research-vessel-docks-in-taiwan-amid-tensions-with-china/;Teddy Ng,“Pentagon Sends Two US Warships Through Taiwan Strait,Risking Fury from Beijing as Tensions Remain High,” South China Morning Post ,October 22,2018,https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2169728/two-us-navy-ships-sail-through-taiwan-strait-move-likely-anger.

[87] David Dodwell,“The Real Target of Trump's Trade War Is ‘Made in China 2025,” South China Morning Post ,June 17,2018,https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2151177/real-target-trumps-trade-war-made-china-2025;James McBride,“Is ‘Made in China 2025’ a Threat to Global Trade?”Council on Foreign Relations,August 2,2018,https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/made-china-2025-threat-global-trade.

[88] Arvind Panagariya,“The Trade War Has Claimed Its First Victim,” Foreign Policy ,October 19,2018,https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/19/the-trade-war-has-claimed-its-first-victim/.

[89] Arvind Panagariya,“The Trade War Has Claimed Its First Victim,” Foreign Policy ,October 19,2018,https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/19/the-trade-war-has-claimed-its-first-victim/;Walter Russell Mead,“Left and Right Agree:Get Tough on China,” The Wall Street Journal ,January 8,2018,https://www.wsj.com/articles/left-and-right-agree-get-tough-on-china-1515458432;Timothy Heath,“Partisan Rancor Undermines Our Ability to Act on China,” The Hill ,November 8,2018,https://thehill.com/opinion/international/415698-partisan-rancor-undermines-our-ability-to-act-on-china.

[90] Mark Cancian,“What Really Matters in the Defense Authorization Act & What Didn't Get Done,” Breaking Defense ,August 3,2018,https://breakingdefense.com/2018/08/what-really-matters-in-the-defense-authorization-act-what-didnt-get-done/;Thomas Spoehr,et al.,“House and Senate Make Strong Start Toward the 2019 NDAA,”The Heritage Foundation,June 25,2018,https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/house-and-senate-make-strong-start-toward-the-2019-ndaa.

[91] Dean Cheng,“Beijing Doth Protest Too Much.US Arms Sales to Taiwan Are Right Thing to Do,” The Daily Signal ,October 1,2018,https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/10/01/beijing-doth-protest-too-much-us-arms-sales-to-taiwan-are-right-thing-to-do/. WVaKkFF8yF9lxKXgGKLr9JaS5It/98rCM3cSZm9GV+hLqKtX6o53CzCAxU+D2rwv

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