注释

1 要研究股票市场的不可预见性。参见 B. Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street (New York: Norton, 2003), p. 187; W. Sherden, The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1998), p. 85。虽然有些人说，专家选股在很多情况下比飞镖选股表现更好，但麦基尔指出，如果把专家建议对市场的影响因素考虑在内，情况就不是这样了。

2 关于这些影响的讨论，参见 M. Shermer, “Why Smart People Believe Weird Things,” Skeptic 10, no. 2 (2003): 62。

3 S. Vyse, Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 24.

4 Skeptic News, “Prayer an Issue in Death,” Skeptic 5, no. 3 (1997): 25.

5 B. Glassner, The Culture of Fear (New York: Basic Books, 1999), p. xxvi.

6 Michael Shermer，怀疑论者协会会长、《怀疑论者》（ Skeptic ）杂志主编，有效地阐述了这一观点。参见 M. Shermer, “The Belief Module,” Skeptic 5, no. 4 (1997): 78。

7 C. Sagan, The Demon - Haunted World (New York: Random House, 1995), p. 214. 如果没有极端情况，其中一半将低于平均水平。

8 这件事真的发生过。参见A. Harter, “Bigfoot,” Skeptic 6, no. 3 (1998): 97。

9 A. Hastorf, H. Cantril, “They Saw a Game: A Case Study,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 49 (1954): 129.

10 R. Bartholomew, “Penis Panics: The Psychology of Penis Shrinking Mass Hysterias,” Skeptic 7, no. 4 (1999): 45.

11 参见 E. Loftus 和K. Ketcham 所著的 The Myth of Repressed Memory: False Memories and Allegations of Sexual Abuse (New York: St. Martin's, 1994)，本书提供了许多令人信服的案例。

12 E. Loftus, G. Loftus, “On the Performance of Stored Information in the Human Brain,” American Psychologist 35, no. 5 (1980): 409. +3sRusZNy5gwfqJitqfMXPMiPG+Qy/+2VmGdCIYkbxgGnjhdPJ01sgExZHG2kSWz