3. Nineteen strategic issues regarding dangers and challenges to China's rise

As stated earlier, the second part of the Research Findings on the Path of China's Peaceful Rise discussed 19 strategic issues. The main content of these issues is given below.

1. Whether China will always be able to maintain the impetus of reform to sustain strong development and ensure the national economy will continue to rapidly, harmoniously, and healthily expand.

Resolving all of China's problems relies on the crucial issue of development. We must rely on the impetus of reform to accelerate development, and we must be persistent with our scientific outlook on development to achieve faster, better development. Maintaining rapid growth for China's economy is inherently the greatest factor in economic security. The number of people added to China's employment population annually is no less than 14 million. If we do not have faster economic growth, we will be unable to solve the problem of employment. Furthermore, from the international angle, we must consider competition related to comprehensive national power: This competition is not only economic; it also implies competition among social systems and ideologies. If we do not gain the victory in growth and quality, it will be hard to convincingly prove to the world the supremacy of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

2. Whether China can ensure that the material and cultural needs associated with the continual population growth from 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion will be coordinated properly with resource, environmental, and productivity development.

An enormous problem for China's development is not only the formidable task of casting off poverty but also dealing with the arduous, limiting conditions of this task. China's large population with insufficient resources is a major factor that is holding back the nation's development. The amount of water possessed per capita in China is only one-quarter that of the global average; the amount of farmland per capita is only 40% of the global average; and the respective per capita reserves of oil, natural gas, copper, and aluminum are merely 8.3%, 4.1%, 25.5%, and 9.7% of the global averages.

Resource constraints are mainly in the areas of energy, food, raw materials, and water. This is especially true as China is currently in the middle phase of its industrialization, a time at which resources are depleted relatively quickly. Moreover, this is a time when the old and new forms of industrialization are overlapping, which makes resource constraints even more significant. Furthermore, China's production efficiency of resources is far lower than the global average. With the end of China's transition period of entering the WTO, ensuring long-term supply stability for strategic resources such as oil is going to be even more urgent. This is not merely an economic problem; it is a part of China's economic security and national security. We suggest the CPC Central Committee focus on China's resource constraints and energy constraints and put more into driving the revolutions in new technology, new industry, and production.

The Central Committee has already proposed measures to enhance energy production, lower energy consumption, and boost strategic oil reserves. Considering the importance and acuteness of the related current and predictable discrepancies, We suggest the Central Committee use a portion of foreign exchange reserves to comprehensively update old equipment that consumes large quantities of energy. We also suggest focusing on finding renewable energy resources by means of residential renovation projects in urban and rural areas, making improvements to people's living environments, and strongly promoting the use of solar energy among the general public while propelling the use of biogas in rural areas.

3. Whether we can guarantee the capital supply necessary to resolve China's large-scale development difficulties.

China is now either the world's largest or second-largest nation in terms of capital inflow, and it will remain so over the next few years.“Capital black holes” have become major concerns for the world, especially for developing countries, and capital flight is a lurking peril to China's development. After over 20 years of reform and opening-up, the people's savings have reached up to 11 trillion RMB, and if cash is also considered, the number is even more promising. How to adopt more effective measures so as to turn the people's money into capital (and thus reduce our reliance on foreign capital and lower our concerns about capital black holes) and curtail capital flight is a strategic issue related to whether China can peacefully rise.

We suggest related agencies carefully calculate their general and sub-accounts for capital supply, and on this foundation, accelerate financial reform. Moreover, on the foundation of boosting coordination between domestic and foreign capital, financial crisis early warning and management mechanisms should be established to ensure China's financial security.

4. Whether we can properly coordinate human resource development.

Accelerating China's modernization demands a “greater open source,” a focus on increasing the total number of workers and boosting their quality. By improving education and all other forms of training, we can turn the pressure of a huge population into the advantage of a large pool of competent human resources. The strength of China's comprehensive national power and capacity to sustain development is becoming more and more related to boosting the quality of the nation's workforce.

The dual mission of China's modernization demands that we continue to make use of our cheap labor to accelerate our new industrialization, all the while being very conscious and efficient in training up highly-skilled workers to drive informatization. The Central Committee has proposed a strategy of strengthening the nation through its workers, and on this foundation, we suggest we firmly grasp and establish the national program of “building a learning society.” Moreover, it seems time we include the issues of population peaking, aging population, labor exports, and orderly immigration/emigration into our national development strategy so as to increase related research and find more solutions.

5. Whether we can accelerate development and maintain social stability while resolving the Three Rural Issues and propelling urbanization.

China has advanced from a per capita GDP of US$1,000 to US$3,000, this being a crucially important phase of development. There are two possible outcomes for the future: The first is that all is well and that the economy and society will continue to press ahead in development, allowing for a smooth path of industrialization and modernization. The second is that all does not go well: There could be a wide gap between the rich and poor, increased unemployment, greater urban-rural and inter-regional disparities, more social conflicts, and harm to the natural environment, all of which would bring about stagnant economic and social development and even social unrest and economic recession over the long term. We should seriously learn from the experiences of other countries that have gone through this phase. This is especially true because of China's current phase of development and its close relationship to the Three Rural Issues, the propulsion of regulated rural labor force flow into urban areas, and urbanization, all of which further complicate attaining stability for this phase of reformed development. In fact, social issues related to this phase of development are becoming more pronounced with each passing day, as can be seen by mass petitions, mass disturbances, and major incidents that have occurred in some places. We suggest the Central Committee organize resources to carry out research on problems associated with the early phase of socialism as was done in the past and, from the angles of theory and practicality, do in-depth studies on the problems of and strategies for the current phase of development. The findings may then be used to educate and train those in leadership.

6. Whether we can form a strong “cultural power” while participating in economic globalization.

The peaceful rise of China is comprehensive, and “cultural power”is an integral part. The cultivation of an ethnic spirit as proposed during the 16th CPC National Congress is very important to this. How to boldly borrow from the positive achievements of other civilizations (including those of Western capitalist nations) while efficiently curtailing “Westernization” and “disintegration” (including religious infiltration) via highly effective cultural innovation and while being involved in economic globalization, and how to strongly carry forward traditional Chinese culture while guarding against rigidity and outdated practices are a major test of the CPC's governing capacity. Our cultural innovation needs to aid in the formation of a rich spirit of the times while complying with Chinese tradition, thus propelling the strong cultural power of China's peaceful rise. We suggest that related agencies of the Central Committee firmly grasp and formulate a progressive program for a cultural buildup that embodies the characteristics of the times, is rich with the qualities of the Chinese ethnicity, and is tolerant. From this, first, we may continually drive the sinicization of Marxism through the development of a progressive, socialist culture and make use of this developing form of Marxism to guide its practical implementation. Second, it will allow for the practical implementation of boosting the general public's proper understanding of ideology, ethics, science, and culture as well as improving their health.

7. Whether we can continue to properly make use of the special advantages possessed by Chinese people around the world, forming a strong synergy to maintain world peace while driving development for all.

The tens of millions of people of Chinese ethnicity all around the world include those who have special advantages obtained by the massive introduction of foreign capital and technology into China during the early years of reform and opening up, as well as those who will ensure China's peaceful rise during the first 20 years of the 21st century. They are able to serve as messengers of peace in the political realm and are a link between China and the world to create an economic win-win for all involved.

8. Whether we can maintain China's sovereignty and security while participating in economic globalization.

Sovereignty is an irreplaceable foundation for the survival and development of a nation, and this will remain true for a long time to come. Economic globalization has made maintaining national sovereignty under new international conditions a more urgent and larger topic of study. Since the mutual interdependence between countries is continually increasing, many powers originally possessed by a single nation are gradually becoming shared by the international community, which has led to what is known as a “transfer of sovereignty.” However, such transfer does not mean that one party may encroach upon the sovereignty of another country.

Within the process of economic globalization, a number of new situations and transformations have taken place in the realm of national security. Cooperative security has become an effective method in maintaining China's and the world's security. During China's peaceful rise, exploring new cooperative security modes based mainly on establishing measures of trust, especially in the aspect of establishing regional cooperative security mechanisms, has become a part of the daily agenda via international cooperation in maintaining national security. With continuing economic globalization, the scope of security is continually broadening to involve aspects that were not traditionally associated with security, such as the economy, society, the environment, and culture. Economic and cultural security are especially growing in prominence. We suggest that China take action as soon as possible to research and form a unified leadership organization for national security to formulate related strategies and establish early warning mechanisms and response systems for related economic, cultural, and societal security. This should be designed to ensure response measures may be carried out at any time against any threats to China's security and peaceful rise. The sooner this problem is resolved the better.

9. The peaceful rise of China and the question of Taiwan.

China's insistence on its peaceful rise is constructive to the question of Taiwan. The key to the solution for Taiwan will be decided by the speed and degree of China's rise.

Throughout China's peaceful rise, it is as the Central Government has emphasized: As long as there is a thread of hope, we must do all possible to unify the nation. Peacefully resolving the issue of Taiwan will be decided by: our persistence in the areas of economic and national defense development, for which we suggest a high degree of comprehensive national power; our conscious effort to win the hearts of the people of Hong Kong and Macao, maintaining prosperity and stability in Hong Kong within the“one country, two systems” framework; our effort regarding the people of Taiwan and boosting appeal for unity; our effort regarding the international community, especially in cooperation with East Asia (including with the people of Taiwan), so as to win the greatest breadth of understanding, sympathy, and support. Moreover, we must oppose and contain any claims or events that support independence for Taiwan, as there is no room for compromise here.

10. The peaceful rise of China and building a strong national defense.

There is no question that China's peaceful rise requires a strong national defense to protect its strategic interests. Modernizing national defense is an important symbol of China's peaceful rise and ensures a strong backing for such pursuit.

Now that we have entered a new century and new stage of development, so as to guarantee China's peaceful rise, protect strategic corridors,safeguard overseas interests (which are escalating with each day), and participate in the international effort to maintain peace and combat terrorism, China must increase its investment into the military at the right time and to a proper degree, upgrading military equipment and promoting new military reforms so as to boost the power of our national defense. This is absolutely necessary and what is called for by the current conditions. As international competition is intensifying, it is especially necessary for China to study new strategies for national defense.

11. The peaceful rise of China and its relationships with large nations.

After the Cold War, and especially after the September 11 attacks in the US, a new wave in the relationships between the large nations of the world has emerged. The competition between unilateralism and multilateralism and the competition for international order has become a focus of conflict for large nations. However, in looking at the big picture, their cooperation generally outweighs their conflict as a new mechanism of coordination is forming. During the process of China's peaceful rise, the major direction being taken in relationships between the large countries is generally beneficial to China.

In handling relationships with other large countries, there is no doubt that China must guard against becoming encircled by the US and its allies while absolutely abstaining from joining or forming any sort of military bloc and refusing to become involved in spheres of influence of any kind. We must prepare a strategic and fully capable deterrent as a foundation for our will to persist with our peaceful rise but not look to become involved in an arms race. We must enhance the infrastructure of our “cultural power” but not become involved in forcing our ideology on others. We oppose hegemony but will by no means lead the fight against it. We have become clearly aware that China's rise will be up against hegemonism in politics, the military, economy, technology, and culture. This is especially true of certain powers who oppose China and who will provoke and exert pressure on China with regards to such issues as human rights, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and trade. The differences and friction between China and major nations on a series of important international issues will continue to exist over the long term, and at times crises may even arise. We are also clearly aware that with regard to fighting international terrorism as well as maintaining world peace and Asia's stability and prosperity, there is a strong complementary relationship in terms of the numerous common interests and communities of shared interests (especially in the aspect of the economy) between China and the large, US-led Western nations. As long as we persist in focusing on our national interests and handle properly our relationships with other major nations by transcending above the differences in our social systems and ideologies, and as long as we seriously explore the creation of an early warning and crisis management mechanism, we will surely be able to build and expand common interests and communities of shared interests. This will drive development and ensure security for all involved while serving as a new concept for the peaceful rise of China and the handling of relations with large nations.

12. The peaceful rise of China and China's relationship with its neighbors.

China's relations with neighboring countries include two major aspects. The first is its relations with its large neighbors: Russia, Japan, and India. The second is its relations with ASEAN countries, neighboring Central Asian countries, Korea, and Mongolia. In recent years, we have experienced shifts in our relationships and promoted cooperation with large nations via developing relationships with small and medium-sized neighboring nations. We have also enhanced cooperation with small and medium-sized nations by balancing our relationships with large nations, and it has indeed worked well. On this foundation, pursuing neighborly policies to promote peace, wealth, security, and stability, we have further dispelled the worries small and medium-sized nations have had about China's rise. Thus, we have made use of the economy and culture to properly handle our relationships with our neighbors in the hope of creating a peaceful environment of reliable security, economic prosperity, mutual benefits, and long-term stability.

13. The peaceful rise of China and other developing nations.

Within the peaceful rise of China, advancing unity and cooperation with other developing nations is a basic foothold in China's foreign affairs. With regard to developing nations’ misgivings about China's peaceful rise, China will by no means seek to dictate, and China always speaks up for them at large international events. Strongly driving economic and trade cooperation with developing nations that have resources and influence allows them to obtain benefits through China's rise and through cooperation and mutual support with China, thus allowing them to rise with China. Moreover, when conditions allow, China will increase aid to friendly African nations. In this way, China and other developing nations may make the best use of mutual support in handling major international issues.

14. The peaceful rise of China and international/regional communities of shared future.

The peaceful rise of China is certain to have an impact on the structure of power and interests in the international community. Furthermore, in terms of overall trends, economic globalization is linking nations to mutual interdependence. The related complexity demands that we actively promote international common interests, communities of interest, and communities of shared interests and challenges that benefit both China and other nations in various forms and on multiple levels during the process of China's peaceful rise. For example, the community of shared interests and challenges that responds to international crises and other global catastrophes and that holds economic interests as its core should make use of the existing “10 + 1” and “10 + 3” mechanisms (cooperatives between ASEAN, China, Japan, and Korea) while exploring free trade possibilities in Northeast Asia and between Japan and China. This would further enhance joint development, common interests, and communities of shared interests during China's peaceful rise.

15. The peaceful rise of China and a strategic resource passage network.

The development of economic globalization has led to a skyrocketing of imports of strategic resources into China, especially energy resources such as oil. For example, China is now the world's second-largest oil importer, and over 50% of that oil comes from the Middle East while about 80% comes through the Malacca Strait. Of the boats that pass through this strait, nearly 60% are either Chinese or en route to/from China. The fragility of such passage and China's nearly sole dependence on it implies the possibility of a serious economic and/or national security crisis. The US deployment of troops and related military behavior in the Malacca Strait area should seriously arouse our attention. As a result, China needs to think of a way to reduce its dependence on such strategic passages in the Western Pacific and accelerate the construction of multi-directional, multi-channeled land and sea oil pipelines. Oil pipelines are a core interest of China's economic and national security, partly deciding whether or not China will experience a smooth rise. As a result, we suggest related research begin as soon as possible so that China may plan from the big picture and manage the construction of a web of channels while working to ensure the free flow of traffic through strategic passages.

16. The peaceful rise of China and the issues of the South and East China seas.

A trend of “enclosure” is forming in the South and East China seas. This involves activity supported by the US and Japan that is disrupting China's strategic planning related to its peaceful rise, and it also involves the testing of China's bottom line with regard to its peaceful rise by neighboring countries thinking of their own economic and political interests.

The peaceful rise of China requires the establishment of a corresponding maritime strategy. China must maintain its rights over its territorial waters while holding to the overall concept of a peaceful rise, so such strategies must be particular. We must consider the fact that China's economy requires a large amount of ocean resources and consider the interests of related nations and joint development so as to work toward gradually developing common interests and communities of shared interests.

We suggest that the Central Committee continue in the existing direction that emphasizes respect of sovereignty, the laying aside of differences, and joint development in properly handling disputes. While maintaining basic stability in our territorial waters, we must adopt effective measures for the South and East China seas. I suggest considering the adoption of more favorable policies, such as discussing the possibility of jointly developing oil and gas fields in the South China Sea with large international companies so as to avoid being sidelined by the trend of“enclosure.”

17. The peaceful rise of China and the issue of ethnicity and religion.

The issue of ethnicity and religion is an important part of building up a strong “cultural power” within the peaceful rise of China. It is an issue that must be properly responded to within the process of China's social transformation, and it is also an important aspect of rooting out the Three Evils (terrorism, separatism, and religious extremism).

The Chinese ethnicity has always maintained an attitude of harmony in diversity and has always looked upon everyone as being part of the same family while handling folk religion issues and while holding to developing and safeguarding the borders. The experiences of history must be learned from and made proper use of. A new feature has emerged with regard to the issue of ethnicity in socialism with Chinese characteristics: The diversity of benefits in ethnic minority regions, a boost in ethnic identity, strengthened religious orientation, and the imbalance in development between eastern and western China have over time brought relatively deep-seated conflicts and problems to the surface. These are obstacles to establishing an all-around moderately prosperous society.

We suggest that while maintaining the policies of regional autonomy for ethnic minority groups and religious freedom, the Central Committee continue to carry out in-depth research on the new features, trends, and functions of ethnicity and religion as related to the process of the peaceful rise of China. We should study the role of ethnicity and religion in China's push for strong “cultural power,” correctly handle the social function of religion, support the proactive power of ethnicity and religion, strike down ethnic separatism and religious extremism, and eliminate the ethnic and religious foundation produced by terrorism. We must also place greater importance on implementing coordinated development measures in Xinjiang and Tibet as part of the international fight against terrorism.

18. The peaceful rise of China as it relates to the UN and other international organizations.

In this new century, we are faced with new challenges and opportunities. Ideas for large-scale reform are brewing at international organizations such as the UN. As the core of global order since the end of World War II, these international organizations are an active component of sustaining world peace, yet they are riddled with faults and deficiencies. The authority of these organizations must increase in terms of sustaining stability in the global order and the healthy operation of international mechanisms while preventing the strongest nations from carrying out hegemonistic strategies.

China's peaceful rise is linked to economic globalization instead of economic separatism and is part of equal cooperation and joint development with all nations. At this time of international competition between multilateralism and unilateralism, China upholds the former and works toward making full use of the UN and other China-friendly international organizations in the safeguarding of a stable and healthy international order. The peaceful rise of China, the joint rise of many other developing nations, and the appeal for equality and desire to develop of numerous developing countries are, together, a strong force in propelling gradual reform within international organizations.

We suggest we place importance on the core position in the current international order held by international organizations such as the UN, carry out in-depth studies on UN reforms, actively participate in UN affairs, and make full use of our permanent membership on the UN Security Council. We should actively participate in and support international missions, and when the time is right, promote and direct new, multilateral arrangements and the establishment of other international organizations as related to China's interests and territory.

19. The peaceful rise of China and international order.

Throughout history, the rise of large nations is always accompanied by the natural cycle related to maintaining or challenging the existing international order. The peaceful rise of China has transcended this long-standing rule, creatively progressing along a new path for a strong nation. Upon entering the 21st century, China must continue to progress along a peaceful route in its rise, handling the existing international order and international relationships by means of proper strategies and pertinent planning.

Currently, the international order is a prominent focus of international contention. The US method of seeking ubiquitous hegemony and pushing unilateralism is contrary to the trends of world peace and development of our time. China, on the other hand, works with other nations toward promoting the democratization of international relationships and making fuller use of the capacity of the UN in international affairs. In response to the disadvantaged position of developing countries in the current international order, China is actively promoting a new international political and economic order, advocating that regardless of a nation's size or strength, all nations should have legal rights and standing on the world stage. In brief, with regards to the current international order, China faces these questions: Should China adopt adversarial, non-cooperative methods, or should it make use of progressive, peaceful, democratic methods in participating in the reform of the unsound aspects of the existing international political and economic order? Should China, during its peaceful rise, choose to be the destroyer or insurgent of international order, or should it be a nation that works to improve and reform this order? We, of course, believe without a doubt that the latter is the correct answer.

These 19 strategic suggestions were put forward in 2004; reading them now, I still find them quite thought-provoking, especially certain domestic issues related to China's peaceful rise. Under the correct leadership of the Central Committee, effective measures have been adopted and have either led to issues being resolved or have initiated processes to resolve them. This proves that when the Party makes good use of opportunity in responding to challenges, it has the capacity to lead the Chinese people in achieving national rejuvenation and actualizing the modernization of socialism. ZuhX49Y8LNTui24StL1mdU5LeqnzEZ504T36S9lbBPYPE/QGBaWhPzepw3eLbu9W