Russian coal producers may struggle to redirect volumes to Asian markets if the EU proceeds with a threatened total import ban, analysts and industry participants said.
分析师和业内人士表示,如果欧盟(EU)继续威胁全面禁止进口,俄罗斯煤炭生产商可能难以将产量转向亚洲市场。
EU diplomats were this week discussing an embargo on purchases of Russian coal, part of an attempt to penalise Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Constraints on Russia’s railways, and the possibility that some Asian buyers will “self-sanction” and stop purchases following the EU’s lead, could shake up the sector, a big employer in Russia.
欧盟外交官本周讨论了一项禁止购买俄罗斯煤炭的禁令,这是对莫斯科的惩罚措施之一。对俄罗斯铁路的限制,以及一些亚洲买家可能会“自我约束”并跟随欧盟的步伐停止采买,可能会动摇煤炭行业,而煤炭行业是俄罗斯的一大雇主。
“We think the market is facing a complicated puzzle, and we expect some of Russia’s exports could be lost due to logistics challenges — possibly in the order of 30mn tonnes,” Morgan Stanley analyst Marius van Straaten said.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师Marius van Straaten说:“我们认为市场正面临着一个复杂的难题,我们预计俄罗斯可能会因物流挑战而失去部分出口——可能在3000万吨左右。”