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This year has turned out to be a surprisingly good one for the world economy. Global output has probably risen by close to 5%, well above its trend rate and a lot faster than forecasters were expecting 12 months ago. Most of the dangers that frightened financial markets during the year have failed to materialize. China’s economy has not suffered a hard landing. America’s mid-year slowdown did not become a double-dip recession. Granted, the troubles of the euro area’s peripheral economies have proved all too real. Yet the euro zone as a whole has grown at a decent rate for an ageing continent, thanks to oomph from Germany, the fastest-growing big rich economy in 2010.
The question now is whether 2011 will follow the same pattern. Many people seem to think so. Consumer and business confidence is rising in most parts of the world; global manufacturing is accelerating; and financial markets are buoyant. The MSCI index of global share prices has climbed by 20% since early July. Investors today are shrugging off news far more ominous than that which rattled them earlier this year, from the soaring debt yields in the euro zone’s periphery to news of rising inflation in China.
Earlier this year investors were too pessimistic. Now their breezy confidence seems misplaced. To oversimplify a little, the performance of the world economy in 2011 depends on what happens in three places: the big emerging markets, the euro area and America. These big three are heading in very different directions, with very different growth prospects and contradictory policy choices. Some of this divergence is inevitable: even to the casual observer, India’s economy has always been rather different from America’s. But new splits are opening up, especially in the rich world, and with them come ever more chances for friction.
Begin with the big emerging markets, by far the biggest contributors to global growth this year. Where it can, foreign capital is pouring in. Isolated worries about asset bubbles have been replaced by a fear of broader overheating. With Brazilian shops packed with shoppers, inflation there has surged above 5% and imports in November were 44% higher than the previous year.
Cheap money is often the problem. Though the slump of 2009 is a distant memory, monetary conditions are still extraordinarily loose, thanks, in many places, to efforts to hold down currencies. This combination is unsustainable. To stop prices accelerating, most emerging economies will need tighter policies next year. If they do too much, their growth could slow sharply. If they do too little, they invite higher inflation and a bigger tightening later. Either way, the chances of a macroeconomic shock coming from the emerging world are rising steeply.
1. What is the economic situation of the euro zone in 2010?
A) It is surprisingly good.
B) It is confronted with many problems.
C) It is energetic and fast-growing.
D) It has grown at a reasonable rate.
2. It can be inferred from the second paragraph that ______.
A) investors are not rattled by some bad news
B) financial markets are in downtrend
C) the year 2011 will be a good one for the world economy
D) investors are not indifferent to the soaring debt in the euro zone
3. By saying “now their breezy confidence seems misplaced”, the author means that ______.
A) investors are too active
B) investors are too optimistic
C) investors are too relaxed
D) investors are too pessimistic
4. According to Para. 4 and Para. 5, which of the following is true of the emerging markets?
A) Many people worry about asset bubbles and broader overheating.
B) Loose monetary conditions are helpful to hold down currencies.
C) Tighter polices are called for in order to stop prices rising.
D) They need tighter polices so that their economy could grow rapidly.
5. Which of the following best states the central idea of the text?
A) Performance of the world economy in 2011.
B) Performance of the economy in the emerging market.
C) Economic problems which will be dealt with in the year 2011.
D) Review of world economy in 2010 and prediction of that in 2011.