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中国金融开放:模式、基础条件和市场效应评估

摘要

改革开放40多年来,中国经济无论在规模、结构、汇率,还是在市场开放度、竞争能力、国际影响力等方面都有根本性变化。与此相适应,中国需要构建一个更加开放、高度国际化的现代金融体系,实现人民币的自由化、国际化,建立新的国际金融中心。

本导论简要分析了中国金融开放的进程和现状,总结了典型大国和新兴经济体金融开放的经验和教训,基于中国的实际情况和金融开放的战略目标,提出了中国金融全面开放的路径选择,并对中国金融全面开放后的市场效应做了评估。

本导论的核心观点是:在中国金融全面开放的过程中,要在“货币政策独立、汇率稳定、资本自由流动”三个目标中做出选择,在政策设计上建议选取“货币政策独立和资本自由流动”的组合,形成市场决定的汇率形成机制;目前 金融开放的重点是金融机构的开放,这是中国金融开放的独特路径,但人民币自由化始终是一个不能绕开的坎;中国金融全面开放的硬实力基本具备,但软实力相对薄弱,金融基础设施亟待改进和完善;中国金融全面开放的目标有两个,分别为人民币自由化、国际化,以及新的国际金融中心的形成;中国金融开放后的市场效应具有大国经济和新兴经济体双重特征,在软实力得以提升的条件下,全面开放后中国金融的市场变化(主要指人民币汇率)会呈现出短期波动、长期趋于收敛的趋势。

Abstract

Via more than 40 years of reforming and opening up,China's economy has undergone fundamental changes in both size,structure,exchange rate,and market openness,competitiveness and international influence.In line with this,China needs to build a more open and highly international modern financial system,to realize the liberalization and internationalization of RMB,and to establish a new global financial center.

This paper analyzes the process and current situation of China's financial opening up,summarizes the experience and lessons of financial opening up of typical major and emerging economies,puts forward the path selection of China's financial opening up,and evaluates the market effect of China's financial opening up.

The core points of this paper are:in the process of China's comprehensive financial opening up,we should make a choice among the three objectives of “monetary policy independence,exchange rate stability and free capital flow”,our suggestion for policy design is the combination of“monetary policy independence and free capital flow”to form a market determined exchange rate mechanism;at present,the focus of financial opening up is the opening up of financial institutions,which is a unique path for China,but RMB liberalizationis always a barrier that cannot be bypassed;the hard power of China's financial opening up is basically available,but the soft power is relatively weak,and the financial infrastructure needs to be improved urgently;there are two goals for China's comprehensive financial opening up,which are RMB liberalization and internationalization and the establishment of a new international financial center;the market effect of China's financial opening up has the dual characteristics of major and emerging economies.With theimprovement of soft power,the market changes of Chinese finance(mainly for RMB exchange rate)will show the trend of short-term fluctuation and long-term convergence after full opening.

2001年,中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO),意味着中国经济全面融入国际经济体系。18年来,中国经济快速发展,经济规模由2001年的11万亿元增长到2019年的约99万多亿元,年均增长率约为13%。与此同时,经济增长质量有很大提高,经济的国际竞争力和国际影响力明显提升。2010年,中国经济规模超过日本,成为全球第二大经济体。2018年,国际贸易规模超过30万亿元,是全球最大货物进出口贸易国。在此期间,虽然中国金融在深化改革的同时不断扩大开放,但总体而言,从开放度和国际影响力角度看,中国金融与中国经济相比,仍有相当大的差距,不能适应中国经济全面开放的要求,仍处在较低水平的开放状态。如何进一步推动中国金融的全面开放,是未来一个时期我们面临的重要任务。 rQydv/Dy/J3sPeBoGaMocV9jsQtSy96L4wqh7n4A1t36tGQ+i+ZRwy8iTPwdcG7Y

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