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第四节
基本框架

本书共分为前后相继的七章。

第一章为绪论。受媒介生态环境和现实社会环境的影响,网络舆情的间歇性发生成为当前中国社会不可忽视的一个事实。本章在交代具体研究背景和研究意义的基础上,阐述了本研究的目标,即揭示网络舆情演化规律及其形成与发展的动力机制,并据此提出行之有效的网络舆情管理和应对策略。此外,本章还从网络舆情传播模式、网络舆情观点聚合、网络舆情信息扩散三个方面对现有的相关文献进行了综述,同时提出了研究的思路和方法,以及全书的基本框架。

第二章分析了网络舆情演化研究的理论框架。网络舆情演化实质上是发生于互联网这一复杂网络中的观点动力学和传播动力学过程,为此,本章首先界定了网络舆情及网络舆情演化的概念与内涵,认为网络舆情观点聚合与网络舆情信息扩散是网络舆情演化过程中相互交融的两个面向,它们贯穿于网络舆情发生、发展的整个生命周期,是同时进行的网络舆情演化的两个分支。本章还描述了新媒体环境下的网络舆情图景,梳理了网络舆情演化建模的两个相关理论,即社会动力学和复杂社会网络,并以此分析为基础阐释了网络舆情演化模型的要素构成。

第三章讨论可视化分析技术在网络舆情研究中的应用。网络舆情信息具有典型的大数据特征,具体表现为它的海量性、多样性、动态性和低价值密度性,使用传统的社会研究方法充分处理这些信息。为此,本章在介绍当前研究者普遍使用的网络舆情分析方法及其实践现状的基础上,探讨了文本信息、层次信息、关系网络信息等网络舆情信息的可视化分析途径。通过绘制可视化图形的方式,可以更好地呈现网络舆情的发展过程,进而揭示网络舆情的演化规律。

第四章探讨网络舆情演化中的观点聚合模型构建与仿真。作为网络舆情演化过程的重要分支,网络舆情观点聚合探讨的是初始时刻关于某一舆情事件的杂乱无章的个体观点通过何种内在机制最终聚合并达成共识、极化或出现少量观点簇的。本章结合观点动力学模型的研究成果和网络舆情观点聚合过程的特殊性,提出网络舆情演化过程中个体观点交互的环境与规则,进而构建网络舆情观点聚合模型;在此基础上,通过对模型的仿真对影响网络舆情观点聚合的因素进行分析。

第五章探讨网络舆情演化中的信息扩散模型构建与仿真。网络舆情信息扩散过程是网络舆情受众范围和社会影响随时间而不断扩大的过程。本章首先进行网络舆情信息扩散机制分析,提出基于个体中心网的交互扩散模式;结合传染病研究中的SEIR模型和网络舆情信息扩散中的个体交互模式,提出了适合网络舆情信息扩散过程的信息扩散模型;通过调整部分变量和参数的取值,研究影响网络舆情信息扩散过程的主要因素及这些因素的作用机制。

第六章结合具体案例的分析概括网络舆情传播过程的可视化及其内在规律。由于信息网络技术的发展,一些新的传播媒介不断涌现出来;在此背景下,网络舆情也可以细化为更多的门类,如微博舆情、微信舆情等。本章以微博舆情为关注点,首先探讨其中的用户特征及传播特质,然后利用可视化分析的方法分析了“哈尔滨天价鱼事件”的传播过程,最后归纳出网络舆情传播过程的共同性,揭示出这种共同性背后所蕴含的网络舆情传播规律。

第七章分析了新媒体环境下网络舆情应对的困难、原则及策略。网络舆情具有两面性:从积极的一面来看,网络舆情能够维护一些个人或群体的利益,甚至促进社会的民主化进程;从消极的一面来看,有些网络舆情也会侵犯一些个人或群体的利益,甚至破坏社会秩序,影响社会的和谐与稳定。但不管怎样,对待网络舆情都不能持以放任不管的态度;反之,相关部门应当紧密关注网络舆情动向,提高网络舆情应对能力,构建行之有效的网络舆情管理机制。本章在分析新媒体环境下网络舆情应对困境的基础上,提出了网络舆情的应对原则和应对策略。


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