下载掌阅APP，畅读海量书库
立即打开
The Geopolinomics，which has been developing for more than one hundred years，originated from the geopolitic analysis and gradually transferred to geoeconomic analysis. After entering the new century，great changes of the geopolinomic issues have taken place in mainly three aspects. First，after the cold war，the key point of the geopolinomic issues has changed from geopolitics to geoeconomics；Second，with the impulse of the economic globalization，the spatial scale of geopolinomic issues has extended to the global scale；Third，the geopolinomic issues assume a diversified complexion，in which issues of food security，resources and climate change have caused the wide attention of the world，and each issue has a different geopolinomic situation. There are multi-interactive relationships between all kinds of geopolinomic issues，which make the geopolinomic structures much more complex.
It’s obvious that the traditional geopolinomic analysis methods based on philosophic discussion，case studies and subjective inference，couldn’t meet the new situations of geopolimic issues any more. In this work，the author considers that the application of computational economics and policy simulation technology could make up for the defect of the traditional methods. In view of the three development trends of geopolinomic issues，the author holds the opinion that the computational economic model should be global multi-regional and multi-sectorial. Accordingly，the author proposes a global multi-regional computable general equilibrium model and simulates the current geopolinomic issues.
The author summarizes the development history，model system，solution methods and the representative work of computable general equilibrium modeling，and emphatically gives an overview of multi-regional CGE model. As a typical CGE model，GTAP can be taken as an approapraite framework for analyzing geopolinomic problems. In the section of the model description，the author analyzes the structure of GTAP，and expounds the basic hypothesis，the account relationship，the ways of expression，equations system and closure setting of the model，in which nonlinear equation system and its linearization constitutes the basis of the modeling.
This work focuses on the design and development of GMR-CGE （Geopolitinomics oriented Computable General Equlibrium） which is applied in geopolitinomic analysis. The system framework is designed with the popular C/S three-tier architecture and has a strong encapsulation feature. The key technology applied is hybrid-programming of C# and GAMS script. The core model is built through the GAMS script，which improves modeling efficiency remarkably，and the system interface is designed through C# language. In addition，C# has taken the role of starting GAMS and other executable files. The system has good flexibility on the number of regions and sectors，which is quite suitable for the simulation and analysis of different global partitions. The system also has friendly human-computer interactive interface，which can reduce technology threshold of the use of the system，and make users concentrate on problems but not on the technical details. Based on GTAP database and GMR-CGE，in view of the current series of typical geopolinomic issues in China，the author processed some scenario analysis. The research work mainly analyzes the following four kinds of issues：the accounting and geopolinomic structure on carbon transfer in international trade，the environment and economic influence and coping measures of carbon tariffs，the economic impact of the Sino-EAEU FTA，and Pros and Cons of Russia’s new oil tax reform，corresponding to chapter 5，6，7 and 8 respectively. The four exapmles are typical，and belong to climate change economics and regional trade integration problems. The examples can testify the applicability of GMR-CGE.
In Chapter 5，the volume of embodied carbon in international trades is computed based on the multi-regional input-output table provided by the GTAP database. Some results have been obtained. First，the volume of embodied carbon is rather enormous and there exists significant distinction in the outflow and inflow of embodied carbon in various countries or regions. The net outflows of embodied carbon of BRICs are large，while developed countries or regions，such as US，EU and Japan，have large numbers of net inflows of embodied carbon. Last，with a typical regional structure，the countries can be divided into three categories，of which the BRICs could be taken as the main partners of China on the issues of embodied carbon negotiation. However，the low-lever developing countries are not the appropriate partners.
In Chapter 6，scenario analyses on the impact of carbon border taxes are made based on GMR-CGE system. The simulation shows that the developing countries which include China suffer a certain passive influence，with reduction in their output and terms of trade. China suffers the most passive shock，for example，the terms of trade was remakely reduced and the export was curbed. The terms of trade and trade balance of US and EU were improved. The effect on abatement of carbon tariffs indicates that the abatement is very limited. Besides，a rather high rate of carbon leakage is observed through the simulation and EU has the largest leakage volume. The carbon tariff benefits EU much more than US，which can explain why EU has a strong attitude to implement carbon tariff policy while US does not have such strong attitude. To oppose the carbon tariff of US and EU，China，high-level and middle-level developing countries may have the same view，but it’s almost impossible for low-level developing countries to stand on their side. The author argued that if the countries impose carbon taxes on their own industries and convince US and EU to cancel their carbon tariff policy，both the abatement and the global economy will benefit more. It is not feasible that all countries impose carbon tariff，because this strategy may harm the developing countries more badly.
In Chapter 7，the author analyzes different combinations of bilateral tariff reductions by constructing a global multi-regional general equilibrium model. It is found declining EAEU tariff barriers obviously benefit China，but the benefits for the EAEU are quite limited. Only when China actively reduces tariffs and the EAEU do it to a certain extent，can the EAEU achieve a slight increase in its economic welfare. The industrial structure of the EAEU consists of a large share of resource goods and heavy industries，while the development of livelihood-related industries is lagging behind. Residents of the EAEU mainly rely on imports. All these structural factors are root causes rendering the EAEU unable to effectively employ China’s open market. Meanwhile，they are also the biggest economic obstacles against promoting China-EAEU FTA. This also explains why currently the EAEU excludes the reduction in tariff barriers issue from the bilateral FTA negotiations. In the short term，the EAEU tends to sign FTAs with small and medium-sized economies with traditional friendly relations in order to avoid disturbances to its economic system.
in Chapter 8，several scenarios were simulated for the economic impact of the new oil tax reform in Russia. The results showed that the idea of the new tax reform is quite feasible. The tax losses caused by the reduction of the oil export tax rate was limit and could be offset by modest increase of MET. Moreover，the new tax reform could improve Russia’s real GDP and welfare somehow. However，the new tax reform would also stimulate oil companies to expand their oil output and export volume，which resulted in the Russian economy’s further dependence on oil exploration and exports. The tax burden would shift from the upstream to the downstream of the oil industry chain，resulting in a sharp drop in the output and export of the heavy chemical industry，especially the petroleum processing industry. This was not conducive to improving the industrialization decline and became an important potential risk in the new tax reform process. Of course，this also imposes greater pressure on the modernization of the oil processing industry and it is imperative to reduce the quantity and raise the quality of oil processing industry.The impact of the tax reform in Russia on international economy is limited.
Finally，the author makes a summary of the whole study，and pointed out that further work is still needed，especially on the CGE modeling and the development of GMR-CGE. The research is still an exploratory study on the application of policy modeling method on geopolinomic issues，and in the future，more studies should be done.