无所不包的历史理论？

我在组织大历史教学的过程中摸索出一套万事万物的历史理论，有关内容将在下一章详细阐述。这一理论并不是要解释历史上曾经的万事万物的细节，而是试图通过放宽视野，洞悉可能的整体格局，而这种整体格局若以小的历史视野考证往往就被遮蔽了。这里还需指出，假如读者没有兴趣直接进入有关历史理论的讨论而想先看看这种历史是否新鲜有趣，那么读者完全可以先跳过第二章直接阅读第三章，直到感觉有必要查阅相关的理论阐释，可以再回过头阅读第二章。

但不管读者做如何决定，这里还有一点颇值得指出：其实读者在阅读上述有关19世纪早期大历史兴起的讨论中，可能已经觉察到笔者的历史研究思路，若没有这样的思路，则几乎不可能预见或阐释亚历山大·冯·洪堡的作为。笔者希望上述有关早期大历史先驱生活于其中的社会和生态环境，有关其生逢的机缘和自身局限的讨论还是清楚的，能够说明诸如洪堡之类的学者何以为其所为。这当然只是某种后见之明。

如同大多数甚至所有的大尺度历史叙事一样，大历史倾向于关注那些造成重大变迁或突出的复杂度增高的历史变革，而对复杂度降低的现象则较少系统地关注。当然，在更为均衡的论述中，上述两种情况都应更为系统地讨论。但要是那样的话，本书的篇幅恐怕还要大大增加。因此，作者须谨记本书偏向历史发展不断萌生的新现象，而对那些伴随历史发展变得不再重要甚至完全消失的现象关注不足。

自然科学家们会说，不同于有关人类社会的研究，他们的研究足以精确预测很多自然现象，比如地球围绕太阳运转的轨道的未来状况（实际上并不完全合规律）。对此，我的回答是，之所以如此是因为这些系统相对简单，其运行格局大致有规律可循。自然科学家能够同样准确地预测超新星未来数十亿年可能的爆发、危及包括人类在内的太阳系的生存周期，或者预测轨道尚无法测定的陨石何时会撞击地球吗？对此，我们还心存疑惑。在我个人看来，遇到这种情况，自然科学家们同样会仰赖本书所提出的方法。

后见之明既有优势又存劣势。其优势在于能够让人对不同时段的历史过程有种总括的认识。但后见之明有时使我们陷入某种循环式的论证之中，比如我们会假定某些事情以某种方式发生是因为当时的条件恰好如此，而与此同时，我们又完全主观地界定什么是适宜的条件，因为恰在此时，上述事情就发生了。笔者在下文的叙事中当力戒此类陷阱，但又充分利用后见之明的优势。无论如何，后见之明是任何历史建构都无法避免的立足点。所以，我们要时刻牢记：后见之明是飘忽不定的当今不可缺少的一部分，因此，后见之明本身也会伴随时间的推移发生变化。

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Chaisson, Eric J. 2006. Epic of Evolution: Seven Ages of the Cosmos. New York, Columbia University Press.

Christian, David. 2004. Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History. Berkeley & Los Angeles, University of California Press.

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