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按照国际标准来看,中国期货市场发展得晚了。它肇始于1990年10月在河南省郑州市建立的郑州粮食批发市场。当时,世界上所有的发达国家都已拥有农产品和金融产品的期货市场。

就像在诸多开拓性事业中所表现的那样,中国很快就赶了上来。今天,中国有4家期货交易所:郑州商品交易所(郑商所,1993年成立)、大连商品交易所(大商所,1993年成立)、上海期货交易所 (上期所,1999年成立)和中国金融期货交易所(中金所,2006年成立)。还有最近上市原油期货合约的上海国际能源交易中心

中国的发展是一个惊人的成功,值得为之喝彩。自从实行市场经济以来,中国已经展现出在短期内取得难以置信而又前所未有的成就的能力。世界上没有哪个国家能像中国一样,用短短的30年时间让如此多的人民摆脱贫困。

不过,期货市场的复杂和专业,并且在中国基本上还只限于国内交易这样一个事实,使得它对于大众而言还是相对陌生的经济领域。中国证监会(原)副主席姜洋,将以这本书就期货市场对于实体经济的价值和巨大贡献提供一个更好的认识角度。对中国大众来说,认识期货市场如何以及为何能够推动经济的持续发展是绝对必要的。

我经常提到,在20世纪,世界已从“大”变“小”,从“广”变“微”。无论是从广义相对论到量子力学,还是从单体细胞研究到基因工程,在这个时代,人类能够探究自然界的基本构成。确实,物理学、生物学以及其他科学的同步发展,使近距离观察和研究最基本的物理与生理过程成为可能,人类由此获得认识自然的能力。同样,将计算机技术运用于成熟的投资策略,其结果也是非凡的。当我们进入数字时代,复杂的计算以及随之产生的尖端分析系统,也为金融工程师提供了将金融风险归类的能力。投资学方法论已由巨细靡遗的正统策略演进为精确调制的现代投资组合理论。我们逐渐由过去长期的风险对冲策略转为线上风险管理,从宏观应用转向微观应用。

1990年,诺贝尔经济学奖得主默顿·米勒将金融期货称为“过去20年来最重要的金融创新”。他将芝加哥商业交易所集团(CME Group)推出货币期货的举动视为“开创了金融的摩登时代”。

一个人只要扫视寰宇就能意识到,期货市场是管理风险不可或缺的工具。全世界最大和最专业的金融机构——国内、国际的银行,公募、私募的养老基金,投资公司,共同基金,对冲基金,能源供应商,资产和债权管理者,房地产抵押贷款公司,互换交易商,农业生产者和保险公司——都在使用这个工具。换言之,金融机构和实体企业利用期货市场来对冲或管理它们在外汇、利率、能源、农产品、环境或者证券上面临的价格风险。由此,国民生产力和生活水平得到了改善。

正因为如此,期货市场的重要性得到了世界各国的广泛认同,芝加哥模式也为各国发展期货市场提供了参考范本。今天,除美国以外,在澳大利亚、巴西、加拿大、法国、德国、印度、日本、韩国、墨西哥、新加坡、英国、阿根廷、哥伦比亚、新西兰,当然包括中国都建立了发达的金融期货市场。

中国业已进入经济发展方式的转型关键期。中国的领导人筹划实施了从以制造业为主的出口导向型经济体制向以内生增长为动力的消费驱动型经济体制的转变。当此转型开始,绝对要认识到期货对于资本市场发展的作用。这本书将会提高人们对期货的认识。


2018年5月于芝加哥

Foreword
by Leo Melamed

Development of futures markets in China came late by international standards. It began in October of 1990 when the China Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market was established in Zhengzhou, Henan Province. By then every developed nation in the world already maintained futures markets in both agriculture as well as in finance.

But as in most fields of endeavor, China quickly began to catch up. Today there are four futures exchanges in China. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE, established in 1993), Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE, established in February, 1993), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE, established in 1999), and China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX, established in Shanghai in September, 2006). And very recently, in 2018, the INE Exchange for crude oil.

China’s growth has been an astounding success and deserves great applause. Since its adoption of market economics, China has demonstrated the ability to achieve incredible and unprecedented results in a short period of time. No other nation in the world has lifted more people out of poverty than did China in a matter of three decades.

However, given the complexity and sophistication of futures markets, and the fact that in China they are generally restricted to domestic trade, these markets are still a relatively unknown business enterprise by the Chinese public. This book by CSRC Vice-Chairman, Jiang Yang, will provide a better understanding of the value and immense contribution that futures markets make to the general economy of this nation. It is imperative that the Chinese public understand how and why futures markets fit into the continued expansion of this economy.

I have often spoke of the fact that during the Twentieth Century the world moved from the big to the little, from the vast to the infinitesimal. From General Relativity to quantum physics, from individual cells to gene engineering. Mankind entered an era where it could probe the fundamental components of nature. Indeed, parallel advances in physics, biology, and other sciences made it possible to examine elemental physical and biological processes and provided the capability to understand nature. Similarly, when advancements in computer technology were applied to established investment strategies, the result was remarkable. As we entered the Digital Age, intricate calculations and state-of-the-art analytical systems ensued, offering financial engineers the ability to divide financial risk into its separate components. Investment methodologies advanced from all-encompassing orthodox strategies to finely-tuned modern portfolio theories. We have moved from long-term hedging approaches to on-line risk management; from macro to micro applications.

In 1990, Nobel Laureate in economics, Merton Miller, named financial futures “ As the most significant innovation of the past two decades ”. He marked the launch of currency futures at the CME Group in Chicago, as the date that “ Initiated the modern era of finan ce .

One need only to take a quick look around the world to recognize that the application of futures markets are indispensable tools with which to efficiently manage risk. These instruments are used by the largest and most sophisticated financial institutions in the world — domestic and international banks, public and private pension funds, investment companies, mutual funds, hedge funds, energy providers, asset and liability managers, mortgage companies, swap dealers, agricultural producers and insurance companies. In other words, financial entities that face foreign exchange, interest rate, energy, agricultural, environmental or equities exposure use the futures markets to hedge or manage their price risk. A process that has improved national productively growth and standards of living.

Thus, nations around the globe have embraced the idea and followed the Chicago blueprint. Today there are developed financial futures markets aside from the US, in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Japan, S.Korea, Mexico, Singapore, United Kingdom, Argentina, Columbia, New Zealand, and of course China.

China has entered the transition period for economic growth. Its leaders have instituted a transformation process from an export dependent manufacturing economy to a consumption-driven economy, one powered by internal growth. As this transformation takes place, it is imperative to understand the role of futures in the development of capital markets. This book will advance this understanding. h4huRw887arHc3xbHRD1fkSrMezjM5RDB0gFYPCIsxrxM192Pz+ApAkqbcB6KBkB

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