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二、大数谬误

大数谬误(impressing by large numbers),包括大比例错误,是指用为数多的一种情况或大多数的情况替代所有情况的一种论证错误。在GRE写作的Argument Topics中,一般不会出现诸如“100个人里面有1个人如此认为,那么所有人都如此认为”的低级错误,但可能会出现诸如“100个人里面有99个人都如此认为,剩下那1个人的想法就忽略不计”的论述。但在实际情况中,剩下的少数是什么情况也很重要,不能简单地用大数字代表一切。举个例子,假设为治疗人类的某一疾病,人们研发了两种药物,并且在动物身上进行实验。第一种药物,100只实验老鼠服用后,99只病愈,1只死了;第二种药物,100只实验老鼠服用后,99只病愈,1只没有变化。看到以上实验结果,你认为人们会选择哪一种药物呢?按逻辑分析,很有可能会选择第二种药物,因为人们会担心万一自己就是那百分之一呢?这就是为什么不能简单地用“large numbers”来替代所有的情况,因为小的数字也可能透露出很多信息,从而影响整体的论证。

具体结合例题如下(Day 76):

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company’s sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.

80%的民众能否代表所有人,剩下的20%呢?Old Dairy Industries这个公司是否有可能正好迎合了剩下20%民众的需求,从而获得巨大的收益呢? 6f4Hxx0871kapUu80bZmxF3omoUJl2vwJi73toYsaq/PIGQgJgvId24Uz/RdrOZr

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