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Reflation And How To Exploit It
如何从通货再膨胀中获利
The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn’ t stuffing money in a mattress，it’ s the reflation trade-the bet that the world economy will rebound，driving up interest rates and commodities prices.
Even though the economy continues to struggle，investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.
They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.
“Between the bailouts and the stimulus，it’ s pretty clear that we’ re going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess，” says Roger Ibbotson，founder of Ibbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says， “It may not show up for another two years，after that I think it’ s quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that.”
Shawn Rubin，an adviser at Smith Barney in New York，has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.
One way is to use options，where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices. “While in the short run such trades may not work，it’ s a long-term move，” Mr. Rubin says. “You should buy insurance when it’ s cheap.”
And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday-the common definition of the return to a bull market，though they promptly fell again Friday-most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.
But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.
On top of that，there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.
Paul Kasriel，director of economic research at Northern Trust，says “the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation，” he adds.
Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a “survivor bias”. That means “looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing” even if demand doesn’ t recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.
Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That’ s clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February，five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices，now that’ s swung around to a 1.35% increase.
“The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small，but the direction tells the tale，” says John Hollyer，a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.
“The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there’ s a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation，” he says.
就市场而言，最近谈的最多的投资策略并不是寻求避险，而是通货再膨胀交易--下注全球经济将复苏，从而推高利率水平和大宗商品价格。
即便目前经济仍然走势蹒跚，投资者却具有前瞻性地看到了各国央行和政府的大规模救助举措发挥作用的时刻。
他们重点关注原材料和大宗商品相关类股，这些类股可能会从基础设施支出的飙升中受益。他们还期望从生产瓶颈中获利，生产瓶颈会推高价格和企业利润。
伊博森伙伴咨询公司创始人、对冲基金公司斑马资本管理有限公司董事长伊博森说， “在诸多救助计划和刺激计划中，很明显我们走出经济危机的时候会出现一些通货膨胀。” 他说， “或许这种情况两年之内不会出现，但我认为在两年之后，很有可能出现，我觉得你们应该针对这种情况设置一个投资组合。”
史密斯·邦尼公司驻纽约顾问肖恩·鲁宾已经将一些客户的部分投资转移至自然资源类股，同时使用策略应对通货膨胀上升的风险。
期权是一种手段，投资者可以使用相对较少的资金，建立头寸应对国债价格大幅下挫或金价上涨将近一倍的情况。如果出现这种情况，他们就能从中获利。鲁宾说， “尽管此类交易短期可能不会奏效，这是一个长期性举措。你得趁成本低廉的时候就采取防范性措施。”
尽管在近期涨势的推动下，截至上周四美国股市较低点回升了20%──达到了通常的牛市回归标准，不过上周五再次急剧下滑──但多数投资者仍认为明年会遭遇更为困难的环境。
不过，美国联邦储备委员会 (Fed，简称：美联储) 已经采取许多重大举措重振经济，稳定金融体系。美联储已经将利率下调到实际为零的水平，并正在逐步向信贷市场注入超过2万亿美元。
除此之外，联邦政府还有7，870亿美元的刺激计划以及不断扩大的预算赤字。全球主要央行和政府都在采取着类似举措。
北美信托银行有限公司经济研究主管保罗·卡斯里尔表示， “美联储在确保经济持续复苏时可能会出现错误，这通常意味着他们在遏制通货膨胀方面的行动可能会迟缓。” 他补充说， “政治舆论将会倾向于刺激通胀和防止通缩。”
利纳马建议投资者考虑那些能够生存下来的公司。这意味着寻找那些成本结构较低、资产负债能力强劲的公司，即便需求短期难以复苏，它们仍然会生存下来。他说纽科钢铁公司就是这样一个例子。
已经有迹象显示市场并不是那么担忧通货紧缩。这点在美国财政部通货膨胀保值债券的 (TIPS) 市场上表现最为明显。今年二月，5年期通货膨胀保值债券的走势显示，市场预计美国消费者价格会下跌0.5%，但目前的走势已经逆转，市场认为消费者价格会上升大约1.35%。
先锋抗通胀债券基金的联席经理霍尔耶说， “通货膨胀保值债券走势所预计的通货膨胀率幅度或许不大，但方向说明了一切。”
他说， “财政和货币刺激举措正促使投资者相信美联储很可能会取得成功，通货膨胀也很有可能上升。”
核心单词
rebound v. 重新振作；回升
surge n. 激增
infrastructure n. 基础设施；基本建设
promptly adv. 敏捷地；迅速地
magnitude n. 量；大小；强度
财经知识一点通
基金（Fund）
从广义上讲，基金是机构投资者的统称，包括信托投资基金、单位信托基金、公积金、保险基金、退休基金以及各种基金会的基金。在现有证券市场上的基金，包括封闭式基金和开放式基金，具有收益性功能和增值潜能的特点。从会计角度透析，基金是一个狭义的概念，意指具有特定目的和用途的资金。因为政府和事业单位的出资者不要求投资回报和投资收回，但要求按法律规定或出资者的意愿把资金用在指定的用途上，从而形成了基金。
期权（Option）
它是在期货的基础上产生的一种金融工具。从其本质上讲，期权实质上是将在金融领域中的权利和义务分开进行定价，使得权利的受让人在规定时间内对于是否进行交易而行使其权利，而义务方则必须履行。在期权的交易中，购买期权的和约方称作买方，而出售和约的一方则叫做卖方。期权分为看涨期权和看跌期权。
翻译行不行
They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending.
But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system.
Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation.
Buying on the Installment Plan
分期付款购物
In Western countries people have been using the installment plan since the first half of the twentieth century. Today，a large proportion of all the families in Great Britain buy furniture，household goods and cars by installment. In the U.S. A. ，the proportion is much higher than in Great Britain，and people there spend over 10 percent of their income on the installment plan.
The goods bought on the installment plan are，in almost every case，goods that will last-radios，television sets，washing machines，refrigerators，motorcars，motorcycles，and furniture.
The price of an article bought in this way is always higher than the price that would be paid by cash. There is a charge for interest. The buyer pays a proportion，perhaps one-quarter or one-third，of the price as a down payment when the goods are delivered to him. He then makes regular payments，weekly or monthly，until the full price is paid up. The legal ownership of the goods remains with the seller until the final payment has been made.
Installment buying has advantages and disadvantages. In the past，it was easy to find couples who had been saving for years in order to furnish their homes. Now，they don’ t have to do that. Installment buying can help couples with small incomes to furnish their homes and start housekeeping. It increases the demand for goods，and in this way helps business and employment.
There is，however，the danger that when business is bad，installment buying may end suddenly，making business much worse. This may result in a great increase in unemployment. If the people on the installment plan lost their jobs，they would probably not be able to make their payments. If great numbers of people are not able to pay their installment debts，there is a possibility that businessmen cannot collect their debts and will therefore lose money. If businessmen lose money or fail to make a satisfactory profit，the possibilities of having a depression are increased. This is why，in some countries，the government controls the installment plan by fixing the proportion of the down payment and the succeeding installments to discourage people from buying more than they can pay for on the installment plan.
在西方国家，人们从二十世纪上半叶以来就一直用分期付款的方式购物。今天，绝大部分的英国家庭用分期付款的方式购买家具、家用电器和汽车。在美国，通过分期付款购物的比例高于英国。美国人将其百分之十以上的收入用于分期付款购物。
采用分期付款方式购买的商品，几乎都是耐用品，比如收音机、电视机、洗衣机、冰箱、汽车、摩托车和家具。
用这种办法购买的物品，其价格要比用现金购买的价格要高，因为要加收利息费。购买者在拿到货物之前需支付一定比例的货款--四分之一或三分之一作为定金，以后按期付款，如按周或按月付款，直到付清全部货款。在付清全部货款前，货物的所有权归销售商。
分期付款购物有利有弊。过去，人们经常看到一对夫妇为了购买家具布置房间，需要储蓄好多年。现在，他们不用这样了。分期付款购物可以帮助收入较低的家庭购买家具布置房间，维持家计。这么做的结果就是増加了商品需求，并且有助于企业发展和提高就业水平。
然而，当企业不景气时，也会伴随有风险出现：分期付款购物会突然中断，使企业难以为继。这可能导致失业率大幅上升。如果购物者失业，也就失去了支付货款的能力。如果有许多购物者无力偿付货款，就可能出现商家收不回债务，导致亏损的情况发生。如果商家亏损或赚不到可观的利润时，市面就会更加萧条。这也就是为什么在一些国家，政府会通过规定首付款与以后各期付款的比例来控制分期付款，并劝导人们在分期付款购物时不要超出自己的支付能力。
核心单词
installment n. 分期付款；分期交付
furniture n. 设施，设备
interest n. 利息
profit n. 利润，盈利；收益
财经知识一点通
分期付款（Pay by Installments）
大多用在一些生产周期长、成本费用高的产品交易上。如成套设备、大型交通工具、重型机械设备等产品的出口。分期付款的做法是在进出口合同签订后，进口人先交付一小部分货款作为订金给出口人，其余大部分货款在产品部分或全部生产完毕装船付运后，或在货到安装、试车、投入以及质量保证期满时分期偿付。
债券 (Bonds)
是政府、金融机构、工商企业等机构直接向社会借债筹措资金时，向投资者发行，承诺按一定利率支付利息并按约定条件偿还本金的债权债务凭证。债券的本质是债权的证明书，具有法律效力。
翻译行不行
A large proportion of all the families in Great Britain buy furniture，household goods and cars by installment.
He then makes regular payments，weekly or monthly，until the full price is paid up.
If the people on the installment plan lost their jobs，they would probably not be able to make their payments.