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1-50章
共50章
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Also by Steven Johnson
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Epigraph
Introduction: Moral Algebra
The Five-Hundred-Year Mistake
Darwin’s Choice
Deliberating
The Compound
Bounded Rationality
Fingerprints and Threadlike Pressures
1. Mapping
The Blind Spot
Maps, Models, and Influence Diagrams
Diversity
The Cone of Uncertainty
The Undiscovered Path
Optimal Extremism
Downstream
2. Predicting
The Superforecasters
The Water Cure
The First Forecast
Simulations
The Game
Scenario Plans
Premortems and Red Teams
3. Deciding
The Value Model
Risk Magnitude
Mulling
Obama’s Choice
4. The Global Choice
The Long View
Superintelligence
The Drake Equation
5. The Personal Choice
Go West, Middle-Aged Man
Dorothea’s Choice
Mary Ann’s Choice
The Full-Spectrum Novel
Other Minds
The Novel and the Default Network
Epilogue: We Might as Well Get Good at It
Acknowledgments
Bibliography
Notes
Index
About the Author
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