书籍目录

首页
分类
免费
排行
我的书架

共93章

免费 Title Page
免费 Copyright
免费 Dedication
免费 Your Best Decision, and Your Worst
免费 Introduction
免费 1. Resulting (Outcomes in the Rearview Mirror May Appear Lar
免费 [1] Job Hopping
免费 [2] the Shadow of Resulting
免费 [3] Luckbox
免费 [4] When Bad Things Happen to Good Decisions (And Vice Versa
免费 [5] Resulting’s Other Impact on Learning: Don’t Wait for Dec
免费 [6] Reexamining Your Best and Worst Decisions
[7] Resulting Wrap-Up
Resulting Checklist
A Long Time Ago in a Movie Franchise Far, Far Away
2. As the Old Saying Goes, Hindsight Is Not 20/20
[1] Job Hopper Redux
[2] I Chart: Identifying Your Own Hindsight Bias
[3] What Did You Know? And When Did You Know It?
[4] You Can Find Hindsight Bias Everywhere You Look
[5] Hindsight Bias Wrap-Up
Hindsight Bias Checklist
You Don’t Know It’s a Polling Error Until After the Vote
3. The Decision Multiverse
[1] A Hairbrained Idea
[2] The Paradox of Experience
[3] Decision Forestry: The Cognitive Chain Saw Massacre
[4] Putting Down the Cognitive Chain Saw: Reassembling the T
[5] Counterfactuals
[6] The Decision Multiverse Wrap-Up
The Decision Multiverse Checklist
The Man in the High Castle
4. The Three Ps: Preferences, Payoffs, and Probabilities
[1] Six Steps to Better Decision-Making: Making Your View of
[2] Pro Tip: Don’t Taunt the Largest Animal in North America
[3] Payoffs: Step 2—identify Your Preference Using the Payof
[4] Probability Matters: Step 3—estimate the Likelihood of E
[5] The Archer’s Mindset: All Guesses Are Educated Guesses
[6] A Soft Landing to Probabilistic Thinking: Using Words Th
[7] If You Don’t Ask a Question, You Won’t Get an Answer
[8] The Three Ps Wrap-Up
The Three Ps Checklist
Bovine Guessing
5. Taking Dead Aim at the Future: The Power of Precision
[1] Lost in Translation: Now for the Bad News About Using Te
[2] Precision Matters: More Clearly Define the Bull’s-Eye by
[3] At Home on the Range
[4] Taking Dead Aim Wrap-Up
Taking Dead Aim Checklist
Taxed by Imprecision

×