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版权信息
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Note to the Second Edition
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Prologue
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Part One Umberto Eco’s Antilibrary, or How We Seek Validatio
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Chapter One - The Apprenticeship of An Empirical Skeptic
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Chapter Two - Yevgenia’s Black Swan
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Chapter Three - The Speculator and the Prostitute
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Chapter Four - One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a
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Chapter Five - Confirmation Shmonfirmation!
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Chapter Six - The Narrative Fallacy
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Chapter Seven - Living in the Antechamber of Hope
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Chapter Eight - Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck: The Probl
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Chapter Nine - The Ludic Fallacy, or the Uncertainty of the
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Part Two We Just Can’t Predict
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Chapter Ten - The Scandal of Prediction
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Chapter Eleven - How to Look for Bird Poop
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Chapter Twelve - Epistemocracy, a Dream
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Chapter Thirteen - Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do I
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Part Three Those Gray Swans of Extremistan
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Chapter Fourteen - From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Bac
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Chapter Fifteen - The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fr
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Chapter Sixteen - The Aesthetics of Randomness
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Chapter Seventeen - Locke’s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wr
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Chapter Eighteen - The Uncertainty of the Phony
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Part Four The End
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Chapter Nineteen - Half and Half, Or How to Get Even with th
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Epilogue: Yevgenia’s White Swans
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Postscript Essay: On Robustness and Fragility, Deeper Philos
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I—Learning from Mother Nature, the Oldest and the Wisest
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II—Why I Do All This Walking, or How Systems Become Fragile
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III—Margaritas Ante Porcos
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IV—Asperger and the Ontological Black Swan
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V—(Perhaps) The Most Useful Problem in the History of Modern
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VI—The Fourth Quadrant, the Solution to that Most Useful of
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VII—What to Do with the Fourth Quadrant
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VIII—The Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society
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IX—Amor Fati: How to Become Indestructible
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Glossary
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Dedication
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Acknowledgments for the First Edition
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Notes
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Bibliography
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Other Books by This Author
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About the Author